Reading CALM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CALM free→
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFarm ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$79.57+1.88%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it is capital-friendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This means it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Farm Products
- Market cap
- $3.70B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-10-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $79.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$183.74consensus
Range $128.36 – $218.16
vs price: -57% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$134.33consensus
Range $106.96 – $161.70
vs price: -41% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $80 CALM trades at 6× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $184 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
5.6x
peer 12.5x · own history 5.5x
Premium
0.4x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-57%
our forecast -30%
Our fair value
$183.74
range $128.36 – $218.16
WhyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 57% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
42nd pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
29th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +5.8% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.52 → $0.55 (+5.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 32.5% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$109.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$277.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,700.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for changes in egg prices post-HPAI recovery
Why it matters: Egg prices affect revenue. A steady or rising price shows recovery from past issues.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Wholesale egg prices are steady or higher than last quarter.
Confirms the other:Wholesale egg prices keep falling or are unstable.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CALM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ADM, BG, and TSN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting CALM and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CALM raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-01), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CALM cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-01), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ADM, BG, and TSN start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping CALM and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If CALM misses again next quarter like this past one (a miss of -9% on the 2026-02-28 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-012mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing or other document filed by the Company with the SEC pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, the rules and regulations of the SEC thereunder, the Exchange Act, or the rules and regulations of the SEC thereunder except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to this Form 8-K in such filing or document.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.