Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$73.23-2.14%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS near $25 in fiscal 2026: EPS -0.76 vs target 24.95.
Cal-Maine aims to earn about $25 per share in 2026. It settled a price-fixing case by paying $1.5 million and donating eggs. The company expanded its board to improve governance. The stock trades cheap with a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.
Egg price-fixing issues could hurt costs and sales. Revenue is expected to drop about 21%. Profit estimates for 2027 have fallen recently. The sector faces headwinds that may pressure demand.
The price is about 37% below our fair value near $135. Analysts expect revenue to fall about 21%. Our view sees some recovery but risks remain.
Breaks if: No further board improvements or governance issues arise
Strengthen corporate governance by expanding the Board of Directors with experienced independent directors to support strategic growth.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions and product expansion. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has not met industry standards, and there is an elevated risk of earnings misses in the near term.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting a cheap valuation compared to peers. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating some improvement in performance.
Management is on track with its priorities, especially in expanding specialty eggs and prepared foods. However, recent changes show a decline in company momentum, and there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations in the near term.
Key factors include the company's ability to maintain guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like ADM, BG, and TSN. Additionally, inflation trends could significantly impact CALM's performance if they reaccelerate.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board expanded from eight to ten directors with the appointment of two independent directors in 2026-Q2 and an additional independent director in 2026-Q1. This demonstrates management's commitment to strengthening governance to support strategic growth.
“Appointed Haley R. Fisackerly and Michael J. Highfield as independent directors, expanding Board to ten members.”
“Appointed Dudley D. Wooley as independent director to strengthen Board expertise.”
Breaks if: New legal penalties or fines arise after settlement
Settle DOJ claims related to cooperative activities and implement compliance measures to maintain legal and regulatory standards.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company reached an agreement to resolve DOJ claims with no fines assessed, agreeing to donate 30 million eggs and pay $1.5 million to states. Compliance and reporting measures were implemented. This shows management addressing regulatory risks and maintaining compliance.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $20 per share in FY26
Breaks if: PE rises above 13 without profit growth
Overall, CALM's multi-year view is cautious, with potential for growth if management executes well and external conditions improve. Not investment advice.