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Freshpet (FRPT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$54.49+3.48%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash flow. Management's track record is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, FRPT trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 79% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Market cap
- $2.59B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2014-09-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $54.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$30.37consensus
Range $19.42 – $40.33
vs price: +79% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$28.58consensus
Range $22.18 – $28.85
vs price: +91% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $54 the market pays 18× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $29 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $60–$98. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.4x
peer 12.5x · own history 23.1x
Premium
1.5x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
89%
our forecast 16%
Our fair value
$28.83
range $16.96 – $40.33
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 89% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
60th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
12th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +9.1% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.21 → $0.23 (+9.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme private-label/value.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$188.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$521.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,457.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
The signal changed to mixed. Risk rose. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Earnings quality is described as fragile.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for positive free cash flow in Q2
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows Freshpet can fund growth and control costs.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 free cash flow reported as positive.
Disproves:Q2 free cash flow reported as negative.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FRPT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting FRPT and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If FRPT beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +80% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit FRPT and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If FRPT reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping FRPT and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Freshpet, Inc. (“Freshpet”) issued a press release disclosing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As previously announced, Freshpet will hold a conference call at 8:00 a.m., Eastern Time, on Wednesday, May 6, 2026, to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Freshpet refe…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.