Hershey Company (The) (HSY)

NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$170.83+1.27%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hershey Company (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.89 → 9.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
capital expenditures remain within $425M to $475M	A supporting condition in Hershey Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is between $425M and $475M.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $475M or falls below $425M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $89.829M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $425M and $475M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202689,829,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
effective tax rate between 25% and 27%	Profit margins stay stable with effective tax rates near 26.6%.	Intact	effective tax rate falls outside 25%-27% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management targets an effective tax rate range of approximately 25% to 27% in 2026. Reported effective tax rates were 26.6% in 2026-Q1 and 22.2% in 2026-Q2, showing some variability but generally near the target range. The trajectory shows management maintaining focus on tax rate management with some quarter-to-quarter fluctuations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
net sales growth of at least 3% annually	A primary condition in Hershey Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Revenue growth: 6.6% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20266.600635 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6bd4a217-3e11-478c-81ff-37b422b4b03d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Reported net sales increased from $2.61B in 2025-Q2 to $2.79B in 2026-Q2 (+6.6% in latest quarter), with organic net sales growth of 5.8% in first half 2026. Management consistently emphasizes growth via price realization, innovation, and acquisitions like LesserEvil. The trajectory is delivering with steady sales growth and expanded brand investments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.86

$9.87 → $9.86 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$12.60B

$12.59B → $12.60B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.87	$12,588,759,050	22 / 21
2026-07-25	$9.94	$12,593,694,228	13 / 16
2026-07-26	$9.91	$12,588,467,190	13 / 16
2026-07-27	$9.91	$12,588,467,190	13 / 16
2026-07-28	$9.91	$12,588,467,190	13 / 16
2026-07-29	$9.91	$12,588,467,190	13 / 16
2026-07-30	$9.86	$12,588,759,050	22 / 21
2026-07-31	$9.86	$12,592,640,000	22 / 21
2026-08-01	$9.91	$12,606,686,541	13 / 16
2026-08-02	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-03	$9.87	$12,604,468,110	22 / 21
2026-08-04	$9.87	$12,604,468,110	22 / 21
2026-08-05	$9.87	$12,604,468,110	22 / 21
2026-08-06	$9.87	$12,604,468,110	22 / 21
2026-08-07	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-08	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-09	$9.88	$12,606,638,770	22 / 21
2026-08-10	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-12	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-13	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-14	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-15	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-16	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-17	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-18	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-19	$9.92	$12,606,792,777	13 / 16
2026-08-20	$9.89	$12,604,402,583	13 / 16
2026-08-21	$9.89	$12,604,402,583	13 / 16
2026-08-22	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-08-23	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-08-24	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-08-25	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-08-26	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-08-27	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-08-28	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-08-29	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-08-30	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-08-31	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-01	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-02	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-03	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-04	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-05	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-06	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-07	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-08	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-09	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-10	$9.89	$12,598,637,877	13 / 16
2026-09-11	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-12	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-13	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-14	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-15	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-16	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-17	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-18	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-19	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-20	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-21	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-22	$9.89	$12,604,102,439	13 / 16
2026-09-23	$9.89	$12,603,746,884	13 / 16
2026-09-24	$9.89	$12,603,746,884	13 / 16
2026-09-25	$9.89	$12,603,746,884	13 / 16
2026-09-26	$9.89	$12,603,746,884	13 / 16
2026-09-27	$9.89	$12,603,746,884	13 / 16
2026-09-28	$9.89	$12,603,746,884	13 / 16
2026-09-29	$9.88	$12,603,469,106	13 / 16
2026-09-30	$9.88	$12,603,469,106	13 / 16
2026-10-01	$9.88	$12,603,469,106	13 / 16
2026-10-02	$9.88	$12,603,469,106	13 / 16
2026-10-03	$9.88	$12,603,469,106	13 / 16
2026-10-04	$9.88	$12,603,469,106	13 / 16
2026-10-05	$9.88	$12,603,469,106	13 / 16
2026-10-06	$9.88	$12,605,374,662	13 / 16
2026-10-07	$9.88	$12,603,485,773	13 / 16
2026-10-08	$9.88	$12,603,485,773	13 / 16
2026-10-09	$9.88	$12,603,485,773	13 / 16
2026-10-10	$9.88	$12,603,485,773	13 / 16
2026-10-11	$9.88	$12,603,485,773	13 / 16
2026-10-12	$9.88	$12,603,485,773	13 / 16
2026-10-13	$9.88	$12,603,485,773	13 / 16
2026-10-14	$9.86	$12,599,975,273	13 / 16
2026-10-15	$9.86	$12,599,975,273	13 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	17	1
2026-06-01	9	14	1
2026-07-01	9	14	1
2026-08-01	8	14	1
2026-09-01	8	14	1
2026-10-01	8	14	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15

$178.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesOct 14 · prior Jul 16

$190.00 → $178.00-6.3%

$0$104.50$209.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

capital expenditures remain within $425M to $475MCapital expenditures: $89.829M
effective tax rate between 25% and 27%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
net sales growth of at least 3% annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hershey Company (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HSY represents a durable compounder in the Consumer Staples sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and a focus on growth, though it faces moderate risks from economic conditions.

What's priced into Hershey Company (The)

The market appears to be pricing in a low level of fragility, with an expectations gap suggesting that some growth potential may not be fully recognized. HSY is trading at a premium compared to peers, indicating that investors may expect continued solid performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on increasing net sales growth, which has shown positive results recently. However, there are mixed signals regarding capital expenditures and tax rate management, which could impact overall performance.

What Hershey Company (The) hinges on

Key factors for HSY's future include guidance updates from management, economic indicators like job reports, and inflation trends. A cut in guidance or continued economic weakness could negatively impact sentiment.