General Mills (GIS)

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$33.13+0.76%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge General Mills’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.21 → 3.16 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $750 million cost savings in fiscal 2027	A primary condition in General Mills's published investment case. The stated target is >=750000000 USD.	Improving	cost savings fall below $750 million in fiscal 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management targets $3 billion cumulative cost savings by fiscal 2030, with $750 million expected in fiscal 2027. While adjusted operating profit margins declined in recent quarters, management continues to emphasize cost savings programs as key to offset inflation and fund growth, indicating ongoing focus but mixed delivery on margin improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS around $3.1 in fiscal 2027	Recent earnings beat estimates with EPS guidance around $3.1 for fiscal 2027.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $3.0 for fiscal 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain free cash flow conversion at least 95%	Free cash flow conversion aims to reach 95% to support shareholder returns.	Intact	free cash flow conversion falls below 85% next fiscal year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently targets free cash flow conversion at or above 95% of adjusted after-tax earnings. However, fiscal 2026 actual free cash flow conversion was 85%, indicating some shortfall against the target despite ongoing emphasis on capital discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Restore volume-driven organic net sales growth	New product launches and pet food growth help restore sales.	Under Pressure	organic volume growth remains negative over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.16

$3.21 → $3.16 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$17.76B

$17.93B → $17.76B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-07-25	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-07-26	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-07-27	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-07-28	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-07-29	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-07-30	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-07-31	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-08-01	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-08-02	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-08-03	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-08-04	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-08-05	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-08-06	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-08-07	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-08-08	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-08-09	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-08-10	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-08-12	$3.21	$17,931,708,920	18 / 15
2026-08-13	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-08-14	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-08-15	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-08-16	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-08-17	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-08-18	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-08-19	$3.21	$17,933,429,730	10 / 12
2026-08-20	$3.21	$17,931,019,375	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$3.21	$17,931,019,375	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$3.21	$17,931,019,375	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$3.21	$17,931,019,375	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$3.21	$17,931,019,375	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$3.21	$17,931,019,375	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$3.21	$17,936,319,375	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$3.21	$17,936,319,375	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$3.21	$17,936,319,375	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$3.21	$17,936,319,375	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$3.21	$17,936,319,375	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$3.21	$17,936,319,375	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$3.21	$17,936,319,375	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$3.21	$17,939,586,042	10 / 13
2026-09-03	$3.21	$17,941,336,375	10 / 13
2026-09-04	$3.21	$17,941,336,375	9 / 13
2026-09-05	$3.21	$17,941,336,375	10 / 13
2026-09-06	$3.21	$17,941,336,375	10 / 13
2026-09-07	$3.21	$17,941,336,375	10 / 13
2026-09-08	$3.21	$17,941,336,375	10 / 13
2026-09-09	$3.21	$17,941,336,375	10 / 13
2026-09-10	$3.21	$17,941,336,375	10 / 13
2026-09-11	$3.21	$17,918,427,383	10 / 13
2026-09-12	$3.21	$17,922,627,383	10 / 13
2026-09-13	$3.21	$17,922,627,383	10 / 13
2026-09-14	$3.21	$17,922,627,383	10 / 13
2026-09-15	$3.21	$17,922,200,716	10 / 13
2026-09-16	$3.21	$17,922,200,716	10 / 13
2026-09-17	$3.21	$17,938,592,974	10 / 13
2026-09-18	$3.21	$17,938,592,974	10 / 13
2026-09-19	$3.21	$17,938,592,974	10 / 13
2026-09-20	$3.19	$17,938,359,574	10 / 13
2026-09-21	$3.19	$17,938,386,241	10 / 13
2026-09-22	$3.19	$17,938,386,241	10 / 13
2026-09-23	$3.19	$17,938,386,241	10 / 13
2026-09-24	$3.19	$17,938,386,241	10 / 13
2026-09-25	$3.16	$17,760,752,384	10 / 14
2026-09-26	$3.16	$17,760,752,384	10 / 14
2026-09-27	$3.16	$17,760,752,384	10 / 14
2026-09-28	$3.16	$17,760,752,384	10 / 14
2026-09-29	$3.16	$17,760,752,384	10 / 14
2026-09-30	$3.16	$17,760,752,384	10 / 14
2026-10-01	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-02	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-03	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-04	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-05	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-06	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-07	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-08	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-09	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-10	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-11	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-12	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-13	$3.16	$17,761,027,384	10 / 14
2026-10-14	$3.16	$17,761,028,890	10 / 14
2026-10-15	$3.16	$17,761,028,890	10 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	13	4
2026-06-01	4	12	5
2026-07-01	5	12	5
2026-08-01	4	12	4
2026-09-01	4	12	4
2026-10-01	4	12	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysSep 25 · prior May 11

$36.00 → $37.00+2.8%

Deutsche BankSep 24 · prior Jul 2

$33.00 → $34.00+3.0%

BernsteinSep 24 · prior Jun 3

$31.00 → $30.00-3.2%

$0$20.35$40.70

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $750 million cost savings in fiscal 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
EPS around $3.1 in fiscal 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain free cash flow conversion at least 95%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Restore volume-driven organic net sales growthPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

General Mills outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on restoring volume-driven organic sales growth. The current thesis state is weakened, as recent performance has shifted from robust to fragile.

What's priced into General Mills

The market currently prices GIS as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, the valuation is justified by the company's fragile earnings quality and mixed operational execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, as management struggles to achieve its growth and cost-saving targets. Recent financial performance indicates limited progress, with organic net sales declining and free cash flow conversion falling short of expectations.

What General Mills hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to restore organic sales growth and achieve cost savings. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and economic conditions will play a significant role in shaping the company's performance.