Kraft Heinz (KHC)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$23.68+1.72%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kraft Heinz’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.07 → 2.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance between $1.98 and $2.10	Management keeps 2026 EPS guidance near $2.04 per share.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS guidance falls below $1.98 for 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance in a narrow range of $2.03 to $2.09 as of 2026-Q2, consistent with prior guidance. This reflects a stable outlook despite a challenging operating environment. The trajectory shows consistent reaffirmation with limited change in guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain strong free cash flow and return capital to shareholders	Free cash flow rose 16% to $3.7 billion in 2025.	Intact	Free Cash Flow falls below $3.2 billion or capital returned falls below $2.0 billion in 2025	Free cash flow: $893M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Free Cash Flow >= $3.7 billion and capital returned >= $2.3 billion in 2025. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026893,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Kraft Heinz consistently reports strong free cash flow, with $1.7 billion in 2026-Q2, up 10.3% year-over-year, and $949 million returned to stockholders year-to-date. Management emphasizes disciplined capital allocation including dividends and debt reduction. The trajectory shows delivery on cash flow generation and capital return commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Return to profitable growth with investments in marketing, sales, and R&D	A primary condition in Kraft Heinz's published investment case. The stated target is Invest $600 million in marketing, sales, and R&D by 2025-Q4.	Improving	Adjusted Operating Income declines more than 5% below $4.7 billion in 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Management consistently emphasizes returning to profitable growth, supported by a $600 million investment announced in 2026 to accelerate momentum. Despite this, organic net sales declined about 1.3% in 2026-Q2, indicating ongoing challenges. The trajectory shows persistent focus with limited top-line growth progress so far. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.07

$2.08 → $2.07 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$24.69B

$24.57B → $24.69B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.08	$24,571,043,056	11 / 14
2026-07-25	$2.08	$24,571,043,056	11 / 14
2026-07-26	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-07-27	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-07-28	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-07-29	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-07-30	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-07-31	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-08-01	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-08-02	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-08-03	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-08-04	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-08-05	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-08-06	$2.08	$24,584,114,484	11 / 14
2026-08-07	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-08	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-09	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-10	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-12	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-13	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-14	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-15	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-16	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-17	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-18	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-19	$2.07	$24,677,851,166	11 / 14
2026-08-20	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-21	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-22	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-23	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-24	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-25	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-26	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-27	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-28	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-29	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-30	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-08-31	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-01	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-02	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-03	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-04	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-05	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-06	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-07	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-08	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-09	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-10	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-11	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-12	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-13	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-14	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-15	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-16	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-17	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-18	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-19	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	10 / 14
2026-09-20	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-21	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-22	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-23	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-24	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-25	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-26	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-27	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-28	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-29	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-09-30	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-01	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-02	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-03	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-04	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-05	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-06	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-07	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-08	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-09	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-10	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-11	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-12	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-13	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-14	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14
2026-10-15	$2.07	$24,692,344,033	11 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	16	4
2026-06-01	1	15	5
2026-07-01	1	14	5
2026-08-01	1	14	4
2026-09-01	2	14	4
2026-10-01	2	14	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 14

$21.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalSep 17

$32.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$17.60$35.20

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance between $1.98 and $2.10Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain strong free cash flow and return capital to shareholdersFree cash flow: $893M
Return to profitable growth with investments in marketing, sales, and R&DDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kraft Heinz outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround scenario, as Kraft Heinz aims to return to profitable growth. The current thesis state is cautious, given the company's recent struggles and mixed results.

What's priced into Kraft Heinz

The market currently prices Kraft Heinz as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. However, the valuation reflects a justified stance, indicating that investors are aware of the company's challenges.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has prioritized returning to profitable growth, but recent organic net sales have declined. Free cash flow remains strong, supporting capital returns, but overall financial performance has been weak.

What Kraft Heinz hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its growth plans and navigate potential economic headwinds. Key factors include the impact of inflation on consumer staples and the company's credibility if guidance is adjusted.