Hormel Foods (HRL)

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$20.40+1.04%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hormel Foods’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.57 → 1.57 EPS · FY ending Oct 26, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS between $1.43 and $1.51 in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Hormel Foods's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.43 per share.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS falls below $1.43 in fiscal 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income between $960 million and $1.02 billion in fiscal 2026	A supporting condition in Hormel Foods's published investment case. The stated target is >= $960 million.	Intact	Operating income falls below $960 million in fiscal 2026	Operating income: $110.904M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $960 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 2026110,904,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 47762f5b-3144-4d37-ac47-df068d9e9154. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income guidance for fiscal 2026 has been updated within a range of $0.83 billion to $1.08 billion across quarters, reflecting adjustments for divestitures and impairments. Actual operating income declined from $244M in 2026-Q1 to $111M in 2026-Q3, indicating near-term challenges. The trajectory is mixed with management maintaining guidance despite quarterly operating income declines. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue reaches at least $12.2 billion in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Hormel Foods's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.2 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $12.2 billion in fiscal 2026	Revenue: $2.961B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.2 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 20262,961,333,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 47762f5b-3144-4d37-ac47-df068d9e9154. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-10-26 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.57

$1.57 → $1.57 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$12.48B

$12.44B → $12.48B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.57	$12,441,857,783	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.57	$12,356,752,396	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.58	$12,356,752,396	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.58	$12,356,752,396	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.58	$12,356,752,396	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.58	$12,356,752,396	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.58	$12,356,752,396	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.58	$12,356,752,396	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.58	$12,356,752,396	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.58	$12,356,752,396	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$1.57	$12,370,809,665	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$1.57	$12,494,309,665	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$1.57	$12,476,595,379	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$1.57	$12,476,595,379	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$1.57	$12,476,595,379	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$1.57	$12,476,595,379	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$1.57	$12,476,595,379	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$1.57	$12,476,595,379	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$1.57	$12,476,595,379	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$1.57	$12,476,595,379	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	7
2026-06-01	3	8
2026-07-01	3	8
2026-08-01	3	8
2026-09-01	3	7
2026-10-01	3	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 14

$28.00New observation · no comparable prior

BNP ParibasOct 7

$23.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$15.40$30.80

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS between $1.43 and $1.51 in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Operating income between $960 million and $1.02 billion in fiscal 2026Operating income: $110.904M
Revenue reaches at least $12.2 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $2.961B

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hormel Foods outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but tempered by sector challenges and mixed management signals.

What's priced into Hormel Foods

Valuation is currently aligned with peers, showing a slight premium. The market appears to have low expectations for significant changes, as indicated by a small expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to face near-term pressure, particularly in revenue and earnings per share (EPS), as management maintains guidance despite recent declines. The company's earnings quality remains robust, but the mixed delivery trajectory suggests caution.

What Hormel Foods hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector headwinds. Key factors include the potential impact of inflation and the overall economic environment, particularly job growth and consumer spending.