USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (USNA)

Q: What's priced into USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (USNA) stock?

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, with valuations aligned to peers but at a slight premium. There is a narrow expectations gap, suggesting that current performance is largely justified by market assumptions. This is a descriptive monitoring read, not investment advice.

Q: What does the USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (USNA) outlook hinge on?

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to successfully implement its transformation strategy and stabilize financial performance. Key factors include guidance updates and sector performance, particularly if inflation trends favor Consumer Staples. This is a descriptive monitoring read, not investment advice.

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-09

$15.12-0.53%

Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change

Standing thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

Broken: Primary pillar broken — Diluted EPS between $1.11 and $1.45 in fiscal 2026: FY26 EPS guidance -0.61 vs 1.11 target.

The bull case

USANA grows revenue steadily toward $925M-$1B in 2026. Profit margins support EPS between $1.11 and $1.45. The company shows progress with $250M revenue in Q1 2026 and $13.87M operating income. Management reiterates guidance, and recent earnings beats confirm execution.

The bear case

EPS progress lags with Q1 EPS at $0.41 below guidance. CEO transition may disrupt momentum. Revenue growth could slow if market demand weakens or cost pressures rise.

What's priced in

The price is about 1% below our fair value near $23. Analysts expect 5% revenue growth, which aligns with management guidance. Our view is consistent with these expectations.

What has to stay true

Adjusted EBITDA between $101M and $109M in fiscal 2026Broken
Management Executionsupporting>= $101 million and <= $109 million · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $101 million in FY26
Diluted EPS between $1.11 and $1.45 in fiscal 2026Broken
Management Executionprimary>= $1.11 and <= $1.45 per share · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Diluted EPS falls below $1.11 in FY26
Fiscal year 2026 revenue between $925M and $1.0BBroken
Revenue Growthprimary>= $925 million and <= $1.0 billion · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $925 million in FY26

Source: QuarterlyIQ research model· Written 2026-07-08· Health checked 2026-09-09· Version 1· Status: Broken· Reviewed when the evidence changes

This is not a price target or investment advice.

Current Outlook

Week of Sep 5, 2026

A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.

USNA is navigating a challenging transition in the health and wellness sector with mixed recent performance.

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround investment focused on evolving into a diversified omnichannel health and wellness company. The current thesis state shows signs of weakening due to recent financial performance and management's downward revisions of guidance.

What's priced into USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (USNA)

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, with valuations aligned to peers but at a slight premium. There is a narrow expectations gap, suggesting that current performance is largely justified by market assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management's execution on strategic priorities has shown mixed results, with revenue and net income declining recently. Near-term risks are elevated, particularly with a significant probability of missing earnings expectations.

What USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (USNA) hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to successfully implement its transformation strategy and stabilize financial performance. Key factors include guidance updates and sector performance, particularly if inflation trends favor Consumer Staples.

What changed in the latest read

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

Short-term · Daily

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

Yes, our read has weakened. The reason to own USNA has diminished due to recent financial performance. It fell from the robust half to the weak half of its sector. Additionally, the company missed earnings expectations in its latest report.

as of 2026-09-09

See upcoming information that could change the risk

Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.