Reading UG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UG free→Reading UG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is high and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If UG cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.02 UG trades at 14× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $7.21 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$101.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$354.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,958.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth impacts overall economic health. Strong growth can boost demand for United-Guardian's products.
Confirms:GDP growth in the third estimate exceeds 2% for Q1 2026 on June 25.
Disproves:GDP growth is below 1% in the third estimate.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UG United-Guardian Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | fair | high |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management is optimistic about continuing sales growth in 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue was $2,872,222 in 2026-Q1, down from $2,961,855 in 2025-Q4. Despite management's optimism for sales growth in 2026, the current trajectory shows a decline in revenue from the previous quarter, indicating limited progress so far.
“we are optimistic that our sales will continue to increase in 2026.”
The company continues to pay dividends, with a recent payment of $0.25 per share.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share was $0.25 in 2026-Q1, down from $0.6 in 2025-Q3 and $0.35 in 2025-Q1. The company continues to maintain dividend payments, although the amount has decreased over the period, indicating a cautious approach to capital allocation.
“The company declared a dividend of $0.25 per share.”
“The company declared a dividend of $0.6 per share.”
“The company declared a dividend of $0.35 per share.”
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates affect how much people spend and borrow. This changes demand for United-Guardian's products.
Confirms one read:The FOMC raised interest rates on June 17. This shows the economy is getting stronger.
Confirms the other:The FOMC keeps interest rates the same or lowers them. This shows the economy is weak.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends can impact United-Guardian's revenue. Strong sales may signal better demand for its products.
Confirms:Retail sales growth exceeds 0.5% month over month in the report on June 17.
Disproves:Retail sales growth is negative or below 0.5% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 27, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 8, 2025, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.