Reading TTSH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TTSH free→Reading TTSH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TTSH free→Consumer DiscretionarySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.98 TTSH trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $7.16 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 58% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.29x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$117.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$502.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,209.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth may show the company is improving. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Tile Shop reports revenue growth above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TTSH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. In connection with the events described in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TTSH Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. | — | inexpensive | high |
AMZN Amazon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd | — | — | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Other Events. As previously reported, on December 15, 2025, Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) effected a 1-for-3,000 reverse stock split (the “Reverse Stock Split”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 (the “Common Stock”). As a result of the Reverse Stock Split, each stockholder of record owning fewer than 3,000 shares of Common Stock immediately prior to the effective time of the Reverse Stock Split became entitled to receive $6.60, without interest, in cash for each whol…
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. In connection with the events described in Items 5.03 and 5.07 below, the Company intends, as promptly as practicable following the completion of necessary regulatory processes, to provide advance notice to the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC of its intent to voluntarily withdraw the Common Stock from listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market and to deregister the Common Stock under Section 12(b) of the Se…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Cooperation and Support Agreement On December 3, 2025, Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) and Fund 1 Investments, LLC (“Fund 1”), the beneficial owner of approximately twenty-nine percent (29%) of the current outstanding shares of common stock of the Company, par value $0.0001 (the “Common Stock”), entered into a cooperation and support agreement (the “Cooperation Agreement”). The Cooperation Agreement provides, among other things, that: • Boa…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 4, 2025, Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. Pursuant to the rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission, such exhibit and the information set forth therein and in this