Reading TTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TTC free→Reading TTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TTC free→NYSEIndustrialsTools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but compared with sector peers, TTC is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $88.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $89 TTC trades at 20× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $104 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.28 → $1.30 (+1.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$88.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$203.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,722.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is healthier and helps growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities is higher than in past quarters.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities goes down or stays the same.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TTC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 4, 2026, The Toro Company announced its financial results for the three and six month periods ended May 1, 2026. Attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of The Toro Company’s press release in connection with the announcement. The information in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit attached hereto, is furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TTC Toro | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ATI ATI Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has raised its full-year net sales growth guidance to a range of 4.0% to 6.5%.
The company has increased its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $4.50 to $4.62.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities, which increased significantly in recent quarters.
Why it matters: Raising sales guidance would signal strong demand and growth potential for Toro.
Confirms:Management says full-year net sales growth will be higher than expected.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers the full-year net sales growth guidance.
Why it matters: Strong growth in the Professional segment shows ongoing demand and good execution.
Confirms:Professional segment net sales grow year over year by more than 9%.
Disproves:Professional segment sales growth is below 9% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Toro Company 2026 Equity Plan On March 17, 2026, the stockholders of The Toro Company (“TTC”), upon recommendation of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”), approved The Toro Company 2026 Equity Plan (the “2026 Plan”) at TTC’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”). The Board previously approved the 2026 P…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 5, 2026, The Toro Company announced its financial results for the three month period ended January 30, 2026. Attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of The Toro Company’s press release in connection with the announcement. The information in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit attached hereto, is furnished pursuant to
of Form 8-K, the information relating to the Charter Amendments, as defined and described under
of Form 8-K and, therefore, is filing this Form 8-K/A for the purpose of correcting the Item number under which the completion of the Acquisition is disclosed from