Reading TRNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRNS free→Reading TRNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRNS free→NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 130% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from TRNS and the performance of sector bellwethers like CTAS, CPRT, and RBA. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $91.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $92 TRNS trades at 50× p/e — 2.3× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $40 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 129% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 6.48x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.38 (-22.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$189.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$431.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,292.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects the economy's health. It can also change the market for Transcat.
Confirms:GDP growth is reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth is reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRNS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 26, 2026, Transcat, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter and year ended March 28, 2026. The press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, on May 26, 2026, the Company posted slides to the Investor Relations section of its website that will accompany the Company’s earnings conference call and webcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time today. The slides a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TRNS Transcat, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving high single-digit service organic revenue growth for fiscal 2027.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $67.7M in 2025-Q1 to $89.3M in 2026-Q4, indicating progress towards the high single-digit growth target. The trajectory shows delivering on the growth focus.
“Company guides to high single-digit service organic revenue growth for fiscal 2027.”
“We expect continued high single-digit service organic revenue growth for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2026.”
“We expect a return to high single-digit service organic revenue growth in the second half of Fiscal 2026.”
“We are well-positioned to capture increased market share and remain confident we will return to high single-digit service organic revenue growth.”
Transition to new CEO Jaime Irick to drive strategic initiatives.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The CEO transition to Jaime Irick is expected to influence strategic direction. No immediate financial impact is evident yet, but leadership change is a key focus.
“Jaime Irick appointed as President and CEO effective March 29, 2026.”
“CEO transition with Jaime Irick to become the Company's President and CEO.”
Engage in material definitive agreements to support growth.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The entry into a Material Definitive Agreement suggests a strategic move to support growth. Financial impact is not yet visible in the current financials, indicating early stages of execution.
“Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement announced on March 9, 2026.”
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact demand for Transcat's products. Strong sales may boost confidence.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can affect how much it costs to borrow money. This can change how much money companies spend in the industrial sector.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 13, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of Transcat, Inc. (the “Company”), approved an increase in compensation for Michael W. West, the Company’s Chief Operating Officer, effective as of March 29, 2026, for the fiscal year ending March 27, 2027 (“fiscal 2027”). For fiscal 2027, Mr. West will be entitled to a base sala…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Chief Executive Officer Transition On March 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Transcat, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Jaime Irick to become the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer as of March 29, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Irick, age 51, most recently served as the Chief Executive Officer of The Pittsburgh Paints C…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement To the extent required by
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, Transcat, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fiscal year 2026 third quarter ended December 27, 2025. The press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, on February 3, 2026, the Company posted slides to the Investor Relations section of its website that will accompany the Company’s earnings conference call and webcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Febru…