Reading TR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TR free→Reading TR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TR free→NYSEConsumer StaplesConfectionersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, TR is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 104% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 27× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $19 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 101% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.39x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -19.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$246.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,003.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher input costs can hurt margins. CPI and PPI reports will show inflation trends.
Confirms:CPI and PPI reports show inflation rates below 3%.
Disproves:CPI and PPI reports show inflation rates above 4%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
is "furnished" and not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information may only be incorporated by reference in another filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or the Securities Act of 1933 only if and to the extent such subsequent filing specifically references such information.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TR Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on mitigating the adverse effects of higher input costs, particularly cocoa and chocolate, on gross profit margins.
Continue to drive revenue growth despite consumer resistance to higher prices.
Why it matters: CPI changes can affect consumer spending and pricing strategies for Tootsie Roll.
Confirms one read:CPI increases more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:CPI decreases or stays flat month over month.
Why it matters: Lower cocoa costs could improve profit margins and earnings. This is crucial for future performance.
Confirms:Cocoa costs drop a lot. This helps margins in Q3 2026.
Disproves:Cocoa costs remain high or increase, further squeezing profit margins.
Why it matters: Increased trade promotions could drive sales growth. Monitoring this will show how well the company is competing.
Confirms one read:Trade promotions rise a lot. This boosts sales in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Trade promotions decrease, resulting in stagnant or lower sales in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people are spending. This affects Tootsie Roll's sales.
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 3%.
Disproves:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth below 0%.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to showing the company can overcome pricing resistance. A strong Q2 would support this.
Confirms:Q2 2026 net sales reported above $152 million, showing growth over 2%.
Disproves:In Q2 2026, net sales are below $152 million. This shows ongoing pricing issues.
Why it matters: A lower tax rate can boost net earnings. Stability in tax rates is important for profit forecasts.
Confirms:Effective tax rate reported below 25% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:The tax rate stays over 25%. This hurts net earnings.
Why it matters: This report will show how well Tootsie Roll is managing costs and growing revenue.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This could lead to less spending by consumers. Tootsie Roll may be affected.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims fall below 200,000.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key insights into sales and profit trends.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth higher than 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth lower than 0% year over year.
is "furnished" and not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information may only be incorporated by reference in another filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or the Securities Act of 1933 only if and to the extent such subsequent filing specifically references such information.