NYSEConsumer StaplesFood ConfectionersSnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS meets or exceeds guidance | A primary condition in Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.49. | Broken | EPS guidance midpoint falls below $0.49 | Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.49. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
gross profit level and margin management | A primary condition in Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is gross profit stabilizes near $51M or better. | Broken | gross profit falls below $51M persistently | Gross profit: $52.63M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit stabilizes near $51M or better. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202652,630,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45aa85da-f466-4297-806c-d971914048bc. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
annual revenue growth rate | A primary condition in Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 2% next year | Revenue growth: -0.56% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-0.560327 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45aa85da-f466-4297-806c-d971914048bc. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
valuation relative to peers | A supporting condition in Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE remains justified by growth and margin. | Under Pressure | PE contracts toward peer median without growth improvement | P/E (TTM): 24.02x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202624.021 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: TR:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsMonthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Oct 28, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TR is a consumer staples business with a cyclical risk profile, so the thesis depends on execution through changing input costs and demand. The current thesis state is watch, and confidence is medium; recent performance is below its industry cohort but has not freshly broken.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, with a durable premium of 1.9 times versus peers. The expectations gap is 0.24, but the evidence does not specify exactly what growth or execution the market assumes. Fragility is rated low because the evidence points to weak execution quality, not a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, the latest nine-month sales were slightly lower than the prior-year period, while management said cocoa, packaging, labor, and freight costs hurt margins. Promotions also reduced reported sales, and the supplied figures show limited evidence that cost management or plant-efficiency plans have improved results. A guidance cut is a stated risk, while the recent earnings release and earlier earnings beat provide some positive context.
The multi-year view hinges on whether management can limit input-cost pressure, support brands, and show measurable gains from plant and efficiency investments. Near term, weaker jobs data could deepen recession concerns for cyclical businesses, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop. The evidence does not quantify the announced acquisition’s expected contribution.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TR’s thesis remains uncertain: the company has recurring operating priorities, but sales progress and evidence of execution are limited, while valuation is stretched versus peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.