Toll Brothers (TOL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-14
$134.20-0.02%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put TOL beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Raise full year guidance across key home building metrics by ~10%: guidance REAFFIRMED (0% raise) vs 10% target.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 1% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 22%.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskToll Brothers (TOL) aims to grow its community count by 8% to 10% annually. This growth is crucial to justify its current valuation. Revenue grew in the last quarter, beating expectations. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance of approximately $10.5 billion in revenue. TOL trades at 10.8 times P/E, below the peer median of 14.5 times. This suggests the price reflects modest growth expectations compared to our view. A significant risk is the potential for a guidance cut, with a 20% chance of missing outlook. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. TOL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 18 analysts currently covering TOL (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TOL in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare TOL with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Homebuilding — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put TOL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Maintain strong cash flow and financial strength
Profit decline may impact cash flow and financial strength.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $134.20
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $134.20.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Grow community count by 8% to 10% annually
Luxury community expansion aligns with growth objectives.
Threatens: Raise full-year guidance across key home building metrics
Earnings growth without revenue growth raises concerns.
Advances: Grow community count by 8% to 10% annually
New community supports growth objective of 8% to 10%.
Advances: Grow community count by 8% to 10% annually
Luxury focus and operational efficiency support community growth objectives.
Advances: Raise full-year guidance across key home building metrics
Raised guidance supports growth objectives and strengthens investment thesis.
Advances: Grow community count by 8% to 10% annually
Reaffirms growth targets and significant buybacks support objectives.
Advances: Grow community count by 8% to 10% annually
Luxury demand supports community growth objective.
