NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 4% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 22%.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskToll Brothers (TOL) aims to grow by increasing its community count by 9% year-over-year. The company recently raised its full-year guidance, indicating strong demand and growth. It trades at 11× P/E, below the peer median of 16×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than expected. A specific risk is that management is behind on a stated commitment. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades. Our read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. TOL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 19 analysts currently covering TOL (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TOL in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Homebuilding — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Legal issues could delay community development and growth objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $145.89
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $145.89.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Increase community count by 9% year-over-year
New communities support growth objective of increasing community count.
Rating downgrade indicates potential headwinds for growth.
Advances: Increase community count by 9% year-over-year
Launching new communities supports growth objective.
Advances: Raise full year guidance across key home building metrics
Raising guidance indicates strong demand and growth.
Negative outlook on TOL's buy potential.
Positive assessment of luxury community growth plans.
Upgrade indicates positive sentiment for TOL.
