Reading TOL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TOL free→Reading TOL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TOL free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect TOL's performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $153.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $149 TOL trades at 11× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $129 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $158–$198. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 15% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.44 → $2.90 (-15.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 14 cut, 14 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 30.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$132.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$299.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,513.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Net income has dropped a lot. This shows ongoing problems with growth.
Confirms:Net income for Q3 is reported below $260.59M.
Disproves:Net income for Q3 is reported above $260.59M.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Negative outlook on TOL's buy potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Agreements of Certain Officers On May 12, 2026, Mr. Robert Parahus notified Toll Brothers, Inc. (the “Company”), of his decision to retire as President and Chief Operating Officer effective June 30, 2026. The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company has appointed Seth J. Ring, currently an Executive Vice President of the Company, to succeed Mr. Parahus upon his retirement. Also effective June 30,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$158.00 – $198.00 (median $180.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TOL Toll Brothers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | moderate |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Expand the number of selling communities to support growth in home deliveries and revenue.
Adjust full year guidance upwards based on strong year-to-date performance in home building metrics.
Continue share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.
Focus on sustaining robust cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Commitment to increasing the dividend per share to return value to shareholders.
Why it matters: This range indicates if Toll Brothers can maintain growth momentum in a tough market.
Confirms:Q3 home deliveries exceed 2,700 units, showing strong demand.
Disproves:In Q3, home deliveries drop below 2,600 units. This shows sales are weakening.
Why it matters: More dividends show a promise to pay shareholders and keep finances strong.
Confirms:Dividend per share rises above $0.26 in Q3.
Disproves:Dividend per share stays at or below $0.26 in Q3.
Why it matters: More communities mean growth and a stronger market presence.
Confirms:Community count hits 475 or more. This shows the growth strategy is working.
Disproves:Community count is below 455. This shows there may be growth problems.
Why it matters: A new CEO may change company strategy and performance. This could affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:The new CEO has made positive changes or announced good plans.
Confirms the other:Ongoing problems or bad news after the transition are concerning.
Why it matters: High cancellations can signal buyer hesitation. This affects future sales and revenue.
Confirms:Cancellations this quarter are 4.8% or less.
Disproves:Cancellations this quarter are more than 4.8% of signed contracts.
Why it matters: Lower SG&A shows better cost management. This can lead to higher profits.
Confirms:SG&A percentage is 10.0% or lower. This shows the company is more efficient.
Disproves:SG&A percentage goes above 10.3%. This indicates costs are rising.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations is a key priority. Improvement signals better financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations exceeds $134.45M in Q3.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations falls below $134.45M in Q3.
Why it matters: This margin shows how well Toll Brothers manages costs. It impacts overall profitability.
Confirms:Adjusted home sales gross margin is at or above 25.25%.
Disproves:Adjusted home sales gross margin drops below 25.25%.
Why it matters: A decline in backlog could signal weakening future sales and demand.
Confirms:Backlog value stays above $6 billion. This shows demand is stable.
Disproves:Backlog value falls below $6 billion. This suggests there may be sales issues.
Positive assessment of luxury community growth plans.
Upgrade indicates positive sentiment for TOL.
Upgrade reflects confidence in TOL's market position.
Maintaining buy rating supports positive outlook.
10% dividend hike directly supports capital allocation objective.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 19, 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. issued a press release which contained its results of operations for its three-month and six-month periods ended April 30, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, to this report. The information hereunder shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall…
Departure of Directors of Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers (d) In connection with its previously announced CEO succession plan, on March 30, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Toll Brothers, Inc. (the “Company”) increased its size from 9 to 10 members and appointed Mr. Karl K. Mistry to serve as a Director, with a term expiring at the 2027 annual meeting of stockholders and until his successor is…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 17, 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. issued a press release which contained its results of operations for its three-month period ended January 31, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, to this report. The information hereunder shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be i…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 5, 2026, Toll Brothers, Inc. (the “Registrant”) and its wholly owned subsidiary First Huntingdon Finance Corp. (the “Borrower”) amended the Borrower’s $2.35 billion senior unsecured revolving credit agreement, dated as of February 14, 2023, among the Registrant, the Borrower, the lenders party thereto and Mizuho Bank, Ltd. as Administrative Agent (as amended, restated, extended, supplemented or otherwise modified from time to time, the “R…