Reading IBP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IBP free→Reading IBP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IBP free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, its valuation is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The valuation is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $208.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $209 IBP trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $172 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $200–$242. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 21% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.61 → $2.57 (-1.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 13 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 7% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$181.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$403.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,272.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue trends improve or worsen. Investors will look for signs of recovery in residential sales.
Confirms one read:Q2 net revenue shows a year-over-year increase compared to Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Q2 net revenue keeps falling compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IBP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 19, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the completion of its acquisition of Diamond Energy Systems, Inc. In addition, the Company provided an update on recent share repurchases under its existing stock repurchase program. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$200.00 – $242.00 (median $228.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | full | elevated |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the acquisition of Diamond Energy Systems to expand mechanical insulation offerings.
Continue share repurchase program with $425 million available under the program.
Increase quarterly cash dividend to $0.39 per share, a 5% increase from the prior year.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can drive revenue growth and expand market presence, which is crucial for IBP's strategy.
Confirms:They announced an acquisition that will add at least $10 million in yearly revenue.
Disproves:No new acquisitions announced by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: This acquisition adds $12 million in annual revenue. It will show how well IBP integrates new businesses.
Confirms:Revenue from the acquisition helps overall revenue in Q2 2026.
Disproves:The acquisition does not boost revenue. It may also cause integration problems.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value and future.
Confirms:Share buybacks rise a lot beyond the current $25.4 million next quarter.
Disproves:Share repurchases slow down or stop in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show management's trust in the company's value and health.
Confirms:They announced more shares bought back under the $500 million program.
Disproves:No new share buybacks announced or a cut in the buyback program.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Installed Building Products, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting the financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of…
Regulation FD Disclosure The May 7, 2026 press release also announced that the Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.39 per share payable on June 30, 2026 to stockholders of record at the close of business on June 15, 2026. One or more representatives of the Company will meet with prospective investors during the second quarter of 2026. The materials used in connection with these meetings have been posted on the Company’s website ( www.installedbuildingproducts.com ) und…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 26, 2026, Installed Building Products, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting the financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the…
Regulation FD Disclosure The February 26, 2026 press release also announced that the Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.39 per share as well as an annual variable cash dividend of $1.80 both payable on March 31, 2026 to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 13, 2026. One or more representatives of the Company will meet with prospective investors during the first quarter of 2026. The materials used in connection with these meetings have been posted o…