Installed Building Products, Inc. (IBP)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$199.12+0.50%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Installed Building Products, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-6.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.48 → 10.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	762.44M
EPS	—	2.805
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.99B
EPS	—	10.341
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.05B
EPS	—	10.776

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Acquisition adds $12 million annual revenue	A primary condition in Installed Building Products, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12 million USD annual revenue.	Intact	acquisition revenue contribution falls below $10 million annually	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Quarterly cash dividend of $0.39 per share	The company pays a $0.39 quarterly dividend.	Intact	dividend falls below $0.35 per share quarterly	Dividend per share: $0.39 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.39 per share quarterly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.39 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ea9b2c70-4604-4168-9a3b-1668a6422ae0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Company revenue grows about 3% next year	Analysts expect about 3% revenue growth next year.	Under Pressure	revenue growth falls below 1% YoY in FY26	Revenue growth: 2.3% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20262.301723 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ea9b2c70-4604-4168-9a3b-1668a6422ae0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchase program continues with $425 million available	A supporting condition in Installed Building Products, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is repurchase at least $50 million in shares.	Intact	repurchases fall below $40 million in next 4 quarters	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.78

$11.19 → $10.78 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.05B

$3.08B → $3.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.19	$3,075,926,720	13 / 13
2026-07-25	$11.25	$3,092,112,474	6 / 9
2026-07-26	$11.19	$3,075,926,720	13 / 13
2026-07-27	$11.25	$3,092,112,474	6 / 9
2026-07-28	$11.19	$3,075,926,720	13 / 13
2026-07-29	$11.25	$3,092,112,474	6 / 9
2026-07-30	$11.25	$3,092,112,474	6 / 9
2026-07-31	$11.19	$3,075,926,720	13 / 13
2026-08-01	$11.21	$3,089,114,474	6 / 9
2026-08-02	$11.19	$3,073,131,650	13 / 13
2026-08-03	$11.15	$3,073,159,340	13 / 13
2026-08-04	$11.15	$3,073,159,340	13 / 13
2026-08-05	$11.15	$3,073,159,340	13 / 13
2026-08-06	$11.15	$3,073,159,340	13 / 13
2026-08-07	$11.21	$3,089,114,474	6 / 9
2026-08-08	$11.21	$3,089,114,474	6 / 9
2026-08-09	$11.23	$3,089,822,650	12 / 13
2026-08-10	$11.21	$3,089,114,474	6 / 9
2026-08-12	$11.39	$3,108,437,000	13 / 13
2026-08-13	$11.39	$3,108,437,000	13 / 13
2026-08-14	$11.21	$3,089,114,474	6 / 9
2026-08-15	$11.21	$3,089,114,474	6 / 9
2026-08-16	$11.21	$3,089,114,474	6 / 9
2026-08-17	$11.21	$3,089,114,474	6 / 9
2026-08-18	$11.21	$3,089,114,474	6 / 9
2026-08-19	$11.21	$3,089,114,474	6 / 9
2026-08-20	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-21	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-22	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-23	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-24	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-25	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-26	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-27	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-28	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-29	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-30	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-08-31	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-01	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-02	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$11.47	$3,127,295,663	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$11.46	$3,125,962,330	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$11.46	$3,125,962,330	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$11.46	$3,125,962,330	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$11.46	$3,125,958,215	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$11.48	$3,127,576,814	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$11.48	$3,127,576,814	6 / 10
2026-09-18	$11.48	$3,127,576,814	6 / 10
2026-09-19	$11.48	$3,127,576,814	6 / 10
2026-09-20	$11.48	$3,127,540,830	7 / 10
2026-09-21	$11.48	$3,127,540,830	7 / 10
2026-09-22	$11.48	$3,127,540,830	6 / 9
2026-09-23	$11.48	$3,127,540,830	6 / 9
2026-09-24	$11.48	$3,127,540,830	6 / 9
2026-09-25	$11.48	$3,127,540,830	6 / 9
2026-09-26	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-09-27	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$11.43	$3,121,486,983	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$11.45	$3,126,480,770	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$11.41	$3,121,073,627	7 / 10
2026-10-09	$11.18	$3,097,645,056	7 / 10
2026-10-10	$11.18	$3,097,645,056	7 / 10
2026-10-11	$11.18	$3,097,645,056	7 / 10
2026-10-12	$11.18	$3,097,645,056	7 / 10
2026-10-13	$11.05	$3,090,195,127	7 / 10
2026-10-14	$11.05	$3,090,195,127	7 / 10
2026-10-15	$10.99	$3,078,528,691	7 / 10
2026-10-16	$10.89	$3,069,480,703	7 / 10
2026-10-17	$10.89	$3,069,480,703	7 / 10
2026-10-18	$10.87	$3,067,299,831	7 / 10
2026-10-19	$10.87	$3,067,299,831	7 / 10
2026-10-20	$10.87	$3,067,299,831	7 / 10
2026-10-21	$10.84	$3,062,517,117	7 / 10
2026-10-22	$10.78	$3,054,474,260	7 / 10
2026-10-23	$10.78	$3,054,474,260	7 / 10
2026-10-24	$10.78	$3,054,474,260	7 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	12	2
2026-06-01	1	12	1
2026-07-01	1	12	0
2026-08-01	1	12	0
2026-09-01	2	12	0
2026-10-01	2	12	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 16 · prior Sep 11

$240.00 → $195.00-18.8%

Truist FinancialOct 8 · prior May 8

$200.00 → $160.00-20.0%

RBC CapitalOct 7 · prior May 11

$242.00 → $208.00-14.0%

Melius ResearchOct 6

$217.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISISep 25 · prior Aug 7

$246.00 → $222.00-9.8%

$0$135.30$270.60

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Acquisition adds $12 million annual revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Quarterly cash dividend of $0.39 per shareDividend per share: $0.39 per share
Company revenue grows about 3% next yearPublished status: Under Pressure
Share repurchase program continues with $425 million availableRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Installed Building Products, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

IBP is a residential and commercial installation business with a mixed growth picture, making this an execution-sensitive business rather than a clear, steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, but management and risk assessments remain volatile and elevated.

What's priced into Installed Building Products, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as stretched, and the model indicates a 24% expectations gap with a premium versus peers. Expectations and valuation have risen recently, while no fragility gates have fired; the evidence does not specify the exact assumptions the market is making.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show uneven demand: second-quarter commercial same-branch sales rose 10.4%, while residential same-branch sales fell 6.1%. Acquisitions added about $59 million of revenue year to date toward management’s goal of at least $100 million for 2026, while dividends and share repurchases continued. Near-term earnings risk is described as quiet, but estimates have been trending down and there was a deep miss in recent history.

What Installed Building Products, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from housing bellwethers DHI, PHM, and LEN could support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that support. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on progress toward the acquisition goal and whether commercial growth can offset residential weakness.