Reading DHI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DHI free→Reading DHI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DHI free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact DHI's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $155.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $155 DHI trades at 15× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $200 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $140–$190. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.99 → $2.99 (+0.0% / 30d). 7 raised, 6 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$341.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,756.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A low debt ratio shows financial stability. It also shows good capital management.
Confirms:Debt to total capital ratio is below 25%.
Disproves:Debt to total capital ratio is above 25%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DHI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Effective May 6, 2026, DHI Mortgage Company, Ltd. ("DHI Mortgage"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of D.R. Horton, Inc., U.S. Bank National Association, as a buyer, and as administrative agent ("U.S. Bank" or "Administrative Agent") and other buyers listed as a buyer (collectively, the "Buyers") hereto entered into the Fifth Amendment (the "Amendment") to the Fourth Amended and Restated Master Repurchase Agreement dated as of February 18, 2022 as amended…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$140.00 – $190.00 (median $155.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-04-21
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TOL Toll Brothers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to achieve consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $34.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Plan to repurchase approximately $2.5 billion worth of shares during fiscal 2026.
Continue to pay approximately $500 million in dividends during fiscal 2026.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue would show strong demand despite market challenges.
Confirms:Q3 home sales revenue of $8.0 billion or more.
Disproves:Q3 home sales revenue falls below $7.5 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. It also shows a commitment to shareholders. A cut could cause worry.
Confirms:The company will pay a dividend of $500 million soon.
Disproves:The dividend payment is now less than $500 million.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects housing demand. Strong GDP growth can lead to increased home sales for D.R. Horton.
Confirms one read:GDP growth reported above 2% in the second estimate.
Confirms the other:GDP growth reported below 1% in the second estimate.
Why it matters: Growth in net sales orders shows strong demand. This can help with affordability issues.
Confirms:Net sales orders increase by more than 10% year over year in Q3.
Disproves:Net sales orders decline or grow less than 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows progress towards management's growth goal. It signals strong demand in the housing market.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at or above $33.5 billion.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $33.5 billion.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can boost stock value and show confidence in the company's future. They are a sign of strong capital allocation.
Confirms:Announcement of a new share buyback program or increase in the existing buyback.
Disproves:There are no new buyback plans or cuts to the current program.
Why it matters: Changes in financial needs can impact cash flow and investment ability. This is key for stability.
Confirms:D.R. Horton reports a reduction in financial obligations.
Disproves:D.R. Horton reports an increase in financial obligations.
Why it matters: Progress on share buybacks shows that management is confident. They trust the company's future.
Confirms:D.R. Horton announces completion of $1 billion in share repurchases by the end of Q3.
Disproves:Share repurchase activity slows down a lot. This may show cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders. It also shows confidence in cash flow.
Confirms:Total share repurchases reported at $2.5 billion or more by the end of fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Total share buybacks reported below $2.0 billion by the end of the fiscal year.
Why it matters: A rising cancellation rate may show weak demand. This can affect revenue forecasts.
Confirms:Cancellation rate is below 15% in Q3. This shows better buyer confidence.
Disproves:Cancellation rate is above 20% in Q3. This shows possible demand problems.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good financial health. It shows commitment to shareholders. This builds investor trust.
Confirms:D.R. Horton declares a dividend payment of $500 million.
Disproves:D.R. Horton cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above under
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. D.R. Horton, Inc. Credit Agreement Effective March 27, 2026 , D.R. Horton, Inc. (“D.R. Horton”), Mizuho Bank, Ltd., as successor Administrative Agent, an Issuing Bank and a Lender (“Mizuho” or “Administrative Agent”) and certain other Lenders entered into Amendment No. 13 (“Amendment No. 13”) to the Credit Agreement dated as of September 7, 2012 , as amended prior to the date hereof (as so amended, the “D.R. Horton Credit Agreement”). Pursuant to th…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. All the information set forth above under