Reading LGIH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LGIH free→Reading LGIH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LGIH free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with LGIH trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $54 LGIH trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $53 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.97x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.01 → $1.19 (+17.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$235.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$546.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,925.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping a gross margin above 20% shows good cost control and pricing plans.
Confirms:Q2 gross margin exceeds 20%.
Disproves:Q2 gross margin falls below 18%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LGIH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. (a) Dismissal of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm The Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Audit Committee”) of LGI Homes, Inc. (the “Company”) conducted a competitive selection process to determine the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, including Ernst & Young LLP (“E&Y”), the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. As a result of this com…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LGIH LGI Homes | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 7 of 100 | fair | high |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing the average sales price per home closed to between $355,000 and $365,000.
Aim to raise the full-year gross margin guidance to between 18.5% and 20.5%.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a slowdown for LGI Homes. It may affect demand for new homes.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below the median for the last quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above the median for the last quarter.
Why it matters: A growing backlog indicates strong future sales. This is crucial for revenue forecasts.
Confirms:Backlog increases more than 63.4% year over year.
Disproves:Backlog growth is less than 50% year over year.
Why it matters: Slower backlog growth may mean less demand or issues with managing inventory.
Confirms:Backlog growth in Q2 is less than 20% year over year.
Disproves:Backlog growth in Q2 exceeds 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims can indicate economic weakness. This could hurt home sales for LGI Homes.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims fall below 250,000 for the week.
Why it matters: Raising guidance shows that management is confident in making more money. This can attract investors.
Confirms:Management raises gross margin guidance by more than 2% in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers gross margin guidance in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A higher average sales price shows LGI Homes is handling prices well despite market issues.
Confirms:Q2 average sales price per home closed exceeds $365,000.
Disproves:Q2 average sales price per home closed falls below $355,000.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026 , LGI Homes, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. None of the information furnished in this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026 , LGI Homes, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. None of the information furnished in this