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Track PHM free→PulteGroup (PHM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
$124.77+1.57%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If PHM cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- Market cap
- $23.46B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $124.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$194.47consensus
Range $173.66 – $197.81
vs price: -36% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$221.17consensus
Range $203.42 – $223.86
vs price: -44% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $123 PHM trades at 12× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $189 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $140–$162. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
11.9x
peer 18.5x · own history 8.9x
Premium
0.6x peer
1.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
-35%
our forecast -4%
Our fair value
$189.36
range $164.04 – $195.65
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 35% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.93x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
15th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish12 analysts, 56% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.35 → $2.35 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 12 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme value-trade-down.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$120.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$330.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,260.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for Q2 2026 home sale revenues declining more than 5%
Why it matters: A larger decline would indicate weakening demand and could hurt future earnings.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 2026 home sale revenues drop more than 5% year over year.
Disproves:Home sale revenues increase or decline less than 5% year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PHM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like DHI, LEN, and NVR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting PHM and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PHM raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PHM cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like DHI, LEN, and NVR start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping PHM and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits PHM and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-231mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the earnings press release incorporated in such Item 2.02, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.