PulteGroup (PHM)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$113.55+0.50%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PulteGroup’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.24 → 10.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain strong cash flow through asset management	The company aims to keep strong cash flow.	Under Pressure	cash flow remains negative or worsens	Cash from operations: $17.051M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash flow from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 22, 202617,051,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $771.1 million in 2025-Q4 and $159.8 million in 2026-Q1. Management consistently emphasizes strong cash flow generation to support investments and capital returns. The trajectory shows persistent focus with fluctuating but substantial cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
3% to 5% annual community count growth	A primary condition in PulteGroup's published investment case. The stated target is 3% to 5% annual growth.	Intact	community growth falls below 3% annually	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Community count increased from 994 in 2025-Q2 to 1,074 in 2026-Q2 (+8%). The company invested $1.3 billion in land acquisition in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows delivering growth in community count supported by land investments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Expand share repurchase program by $1.5 billion	It raised its buyback program by $1.5 billion.	Intact	no further buyback increases or buybacks stop	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. PulteGroup repurchased $300 million or more each quarter from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2, including $373 million in 2026-Q2. The Board approved a $1.5 billion increase in share repurchase authorization in 2026-Q1. The trajectory is delivering consistent capital return through share repurchases. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.98

$11.21 → $10.98 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$16.95B

$17.12B → $16.95B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-07-25	$11.24	$17,122,168,510	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$11.24	$17,122,168,510	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$11.24	$17,122,168,510	12 / 12
2026-07-28	$11.24	$17,122,168,510	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$11.24	$17,080,735,180	12 / 12
2026-07-30	$11.24	$17,080,735,180	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$11.24	$17,080,735,180	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-08-02	$11.24	$17,080,735,180	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$11.24	$17,080,735,180	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$11.24	$17,080,735,180	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$11.24	$17,080,735,180	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$11.24	$17,080,735,180	12 / 12
2026-08-07	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-08-08	$11.24	$17,122,168,510	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-08-10	$11.24	$17,122,168,510	12 / 12
2026-08-12	$11.24	$17,122,168,510	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-08-14	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-08-15	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-08-16	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-08-17	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-08-18	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-08-19	$11.21	$17,122,168,510	10 / 9
2026-08-20	$11.25	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-21	$11.25	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-22	$11.25	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-23	$11.25	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-24	$11.25	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-25	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-08-31	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-09-01	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-09-02	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$11.24	$17,122,204,693	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$11.25	$17,113,265,871	10 / 10
2026-09-06	$11.25	$17,113,265,871	10 / 10
2026-09-07	$11.25	$17,113,265,871	10 / 10
2026-09-08	$11.23	$17,102,309,178	10 / 10
2026-09-09	$11.23	$17,102,309,178	10 / 10
2026-09-10	$11.23	$17,102,309,178	10 / 10
2026-09-11	$11.23	$17,102,309,178	10 / 10
2026-09-12	$11.24	$17,104,045,009	10 / 10
2026-09-13	$11.24	$17,104,045,009	10 / 10
2026-09-14	$11.24	$17,104,045,009	10 / 10
2026-09-15	$11.24	$17,104,045,009	10 / 10
2026-09-16	$11.24	$17,104,045,009	10 / 10
2026-09-17	$11.23	$17,104,352,701	10 / 10
2026-09-18	$11.23	$17,104,352,701	10 / 10
2026-09-19	$11.23	$17,104,352,701	10 / 10
2026-09-20	$11.23	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-09-21	$11.23	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-09-22	$11.23	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-09-23	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-09-24	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-09-25	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-10-02	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-10-03	$11.14	$17,104,355,028	10 / 10
2026-10-04	$11.08	$17,052,281,228	10 / 10
2026-10-05	$11.08	$17,052,281,228	10 / 10
2026-10-06	$11.08	$17,052,281,228	10 / 10
2026-10-07	$11.05	$17,033,689,146	11 / 11
2026-10-08	$11.02	$16,992,851,342	11 / 11
2026-10-09	$11.02	$16,992,851,342	11 / 11
2026-10-10	$11.02	$16,992,851,342	11 / 11
2026-10-11	$11.02	$16,992,851,342	11 / 11
2026-10-12	$11.02	$16,992,851,342	11 / 11
2026-10-13	$10.98	$16,954,747,876	11 / 11
2026-10-14	$10.98	$16,954,749,888	11 / 11
2026-10-15	$10.98	$16,954,749,888	11 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	6	1
2026-06-01	9	6	1
2026-07-01	8	6	1
2026-08-01	9	6	1
2026-09-01	10	5	1
2026-10-01	10	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 12

$138.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 8

$145.00New observation · no comparable prior

Melius ResearchOct 6

$132.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Jul 23

$124.00 → $110.00-11.3%

Morgan StanleyOct 1

$128.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialSep 16 · prior Apr 16

$150.00 → $136.00-9.3%

$0$82.50$165.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain strong cash flow through asset managementPublished status: Under Pressure
3% to 5% annual community count growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Expand share repurchase program by $1.5 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PulteGroup outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks. The current thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history.

What's priced into PulteGroup

The market currently prices PHM as cheap compared to its peers, indicating that it may have low expectations built in. However, the fragility of earnings quality suggests that the market is cautious about potential execution risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals show a mixed trajectory, with management making progress on share repurchases but facing challenges in maintaining strong cash flows. Recent earnings results were positive, but the company has a history of missing expectations.

What PulteGroup hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their priorities, particularly in increasing the community count and maintaining cash flows. Additionally, external factors like inflation and sector performance from peers will significantly impact the outlook.