NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-07-31
Reading NVR? Create a free portfolio, then add this holding for ongoing Reports and tracking. Track it in a free portfolio. No credit card.
Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Gross profit margin stays near 19.6% in 2026-Q1: metric not reported.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 7% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 18%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskNVR's growth depends on increasing new home orders to justify its current price. Revenue fell 10% year over year, and the last quarter missed estimates by 11%. It trades at 16.3 times earnings, slightly above the peer median of 15.8 times. The market expects more growth than what is likely, making the valuation look full. A specific risk is the potential for another earnings miss, with a 26% chance of that happening. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. NVR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 6 analysts currently covering NVR (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for NVR in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Homebuilding — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Threatens: Increase new home orders
Missed revenue estimates may hinder new home orders growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $6147.05
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $6147.05.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
