Reading NVR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NVR free→Reading NVR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NVR free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6332.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6,375 NVR trades at 16× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $6,891 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $6,600–$8,096. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 1.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $90.80 → $90.98 (+0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$261.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,488.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings report will show if NVR can recover from the recent earnings miss. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NVR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 14, 2026 (the "Grant Date"), the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of NVR, Inc., approved the grant of non-qualified stock options to purchase NVR, Inc. common stock (the "Options") to the following executive officers of NVR: Name and Principal Position Options Granted Paul C. Saville, Executive Chairman of the Board 5,238 Eugene J. Bredow, President and Chief Executive Officer 5,238 Daniel D. Malzahn, Senior Vice President,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$6600.00 – $8096.00 (median $7400.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-23
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TOL Toll Brothers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | full | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing new home orders to drive future revenue growth.
Address pricing pressure and higher lot costs to manage gross profit margin.
Aim to reduce the cancellation rate of new home orders to improve stability.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in revenue shows lower demand and pricing problems in homebuilding.
Confirms:In Q2, homebuilding revenues fell more than 20% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Homebuilding revenues fell less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The Consumer Discretionary sector is showing signs of change. Revenue growth trends will impact NVR's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median for two consecutive months.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: More new orders show better demand. This can help reduce revenue drops.
Confirms:New home orders increase more than 10% YoY in Q2 2026.
Disproves:New home orders decrease or grow less than 5% YoY.
Why it matters: A drop in gross profit margin shows higher costs and lower profits.
Confirms:Gross profit margin falls below 18% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross profit margin stays above 20% in Q2.
Why it matters: A higher cancellation rate shows weaker buyer confidence. This could hurt future orders.
Confirms:Cancellation rates rise above 20% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cancellation rates stayed below 15% in Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, NVR, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, NVR, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year to date periods ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2025, NVR, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year to date periods ended September 30, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective October 1, 2025, the Board of Directors of NVR, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed George R. Oliver to the Board of Directors. Mr. Oliver's term as director will continue until the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders and until his successor is duly elected and qualified. The Board of Directors has determined that Mr. Oliver is “independent” u…