NVR, Inc. (NVR)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$5919.82-0.35%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NVR, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

411.62 → 392.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cancellation rate stays at or below 14% in 2026-Q1	A supporting condition in NVR, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=14% in 2026-Q1.	Under Pressure	Cancellation rate rises above 14% in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management emphasized reducing cancellation rate in 6 of last 6 quarters. The cancellation rate improved from 17% in 2025-Q2 to 15% in 2026-Q2, showing some delivery on this priority. However, rates fluctuated in prior quarters, indicating mixed progress overall. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Gross profit margin stays near 19.6% in 2026-Q1	Profit margin is pressured but stable near 20%.	Under Pressure	Gross profit margin falls below 19.6% in 2026-Q1	Gross margin: 20.85% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=19.6% in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202620.854031 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Gross profit margin declined from 21.5% in 2025-Q2 to 19.2% in 2026-Q2, reflecting persistent pricing pressure, higher lot costs, and contract land deposit impairments. The trajectory shows declining margin despite management focus, indicating limited progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
New home orders reach at least 5,700 units in 2026-Q1	NVR is growing new home orders by 7%.	Under Pressure	New home orders fall below 5,345 units in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. New home orders showed mixed trends: increasing 9% in 2026-Q2 and 7% in 2026-Q1 compared to prior year, but declining in some 2025 quarters. Revenue declined from $2.61B in 2025-Q2 to $2.33B in 2026-Q2, reflecting mixed delivery. Management continues to emphasize new orders growth, with recent quarters showing partial delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$392.74

Unavailable → $392.74 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	$409.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	$409.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	$409.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	$409.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-31	$411.62	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	$411.62	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-03	$411.62	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-07	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-08	$411.62	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-09	$411.62	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-10	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-12	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-13	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-14	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-15	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-17	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-18	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-19	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-20	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$411.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$409.46	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$409.46	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$409.46	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$409.46	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$409.46	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$409.46	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$400.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$400.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$400.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-26	$400.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-27	$400.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-28	$400.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-29	$400.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-30	$400.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-01	$400.62	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-02	$395.00	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-03	$395.00	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$395.00	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$395.00	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$395.00	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$395.00	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$391.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$391.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$391.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$391.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$391.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$391.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$392.74	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$392.74	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	4	1
2026-06-01	2	4	1
2026-07-01	2	3	1
2026-08-01	2	3	1
2026-09-01	2	3	1
2026-10-01	2	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 1

$5058.00New observation · no comparable prior

BTIGSep 22 · prior Jul 24

$7446.00 → $7125.00-4.3%

$0$4095.30$8190.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cancellation rate stays at or below 14% in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
Gross profit margin stays near 19.6% in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
New home orders reach at least 5,700 units in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NVR, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, despite recent earnings misses, indicating that the reasons for interest in NVR remain valid.

What's priced into NVR, Inc.

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting a low expectations gap. NVR is trading at a slight premium compared to peers, suggesting that investors expect steady performance but are cautious about potential risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on increasing new home orders, which have shown mixed trends recently. While revenue has declined, the cancellation rate has improved, indicating some progress, though gross profit margins are under pressure.

What NVR, Inc. hinges on

The future performance of NVR hinges on broader sector trends, particularly the performance of key competitors like DHI, PHM, and LEN. Inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will also play a critical role in shaping the company's outlook.