NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Gross profit margin stays near 19.6% in 2026-Q1: metric not reported.
NVR is growing new home orders by 7%. It cut cancellations to 14%. The price is cheap compared to peers. Profit margin is pressured but stable near 20%.
Revenue fell 22% in the last quarter. Profit margin dropped 2.3 points. The housing market could weaken further. This could hurt earnings and orders.
The price is about 4% above our fair value near $6400. Analysts expect almost no revenue growth. Our fair value is 13.5% below the Street median.
Breaks if: Cancellation rate rises above 14% in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: Gross profit margin falls below 19.6% in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: New home orders fall below 5,345 units in 2026-Q1
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
NVR represents a durable compounder in the homebuilding sector. The current thesis state reflects a stable management team focused on increasing new home orders, although recent performance has shown some challenges.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a modest expectations gap, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance given recent earnings misses.
Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results in the near term. While recent financial performance has been strong, the company faces risks from declining gross profit margins and fluctuating cancellation rates.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like DHI, PHM, and LEN, as their earnings results could influence NVR's trajectory. Additionally, inflation trends and management's ability to execute on their priorities will be critical.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has raised concerns about future performance. This may hinder growth in new home orders, which is critical for the company.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, NVR's position is stable, but it faces challenges that could impact its performance. Not investment advice.
