Reading SKY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SKY free→Reading SKY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SKY free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $80.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $79 the market pays 20× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 20× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $61 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $92–$94. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 29% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.04 → $0.87 (-16.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$426.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,307.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income shows problems with making money. This could hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 2026 net income decreases more than 15% compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 2026 net income remains stable or increases compared to Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SKY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 26, 2026, Champion Homes, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release relating to its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The attached press release contains both U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”) and non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between non-GAAP and GAAP financial…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$92.00 – $94.00 (median $93.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SKY Champion Homes, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | moderate |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | fair | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Champion Homes aims to increase its share repurchase program by $50 million to refresh the available amount to $150 million.
Champion Homes completed the acquisition of ECN Capital Corp., enhancing its financial services capabilities.
Champion Homes focuses on maintaining robust cash flow from operations to support its strategic initiatives.
Champion Homes announced an increase of $50 million to its existing share repurchase program, refreshing the available amount to $150 million.
Why it matters: A continued drop in cash from operations signals potential cash flow issues. This could affect future investments and growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations falls below $52.7 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations stays the same or goes up above $52.7 million in Q2.
Why it matters: This acquisition could help Champion Homes grow and improve its market position. Investors will look for signs of benefits.
Confirms:A press release confirming the successful integration of ECN Capital Corp. into Champion Homes.
Disproves:The acquisition does not close or has big regulatory problems.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is crucial for funding growth and operations. Improvement would indicate better financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations shows a positive trend, growing by at least 10% quarter over quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down or stays the same from quarter to quarter.
Why it matters: The increase in the share repurchase program could support share price. Observing its impact will be key for investor sentiment.
Confirms:The share price goes up by more than 5% after the repurchase announcement.
Disproves:The share price goes down or stays the same after the repurchase announcement.
Why it matters: Expanding the share repurchase program shows management's confidence in the company. It may support stock price.
Confirms:Announcement of an increase in the share repurchase program beyond $150 million.
Disproves:No news about increasing the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can affect company strategy and investor confidence. The new Chair's direction will be key.
Confirms one read:The new Chair announces a strategic plan that aligns with investor interests.
Confirms the other:The change creates uncertainty. It does not meet what the market expects.
Why it matters: A larger backlog decline could indicate weakening demand for homes. This may lead to lower future sales.
Confirms:Backlog decreases more than 10% in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Backlog stays the same or grows in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 31, 2026, Tawn Kelley resigned as Chair and a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Champion Homes, Inc. (the “Company”), effective immediately. Ms. Kelley’s resignation was not due to any disagreement with the Company or its management relating to the Company’s operations, policies, or practices. The Board thanks Ms. Kelley for…
Executive Vice President, Operations — Joseph Kimmell: Joseph Kimmell retired from his position with a successor in place and consulting agreement.
Other Events. On May 26, 2026 the Company announced that its Board of Directors approved an increase of $50.0 million to the Company's existing share repurchase program to refresh the available amount to $150.0 million. Portions of the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K with respect to the share repurchase program are incorporated in this
Other Events. On April 24, 2026, an investor group led by Warburg Pincus completed its previously announced acquisition of ECN Capital Corp. (“ECN”), which owns 49% of Champion Financing LLC, a captive finance company formed with Champion Homes, Inc. (the “Company”). At the closing of the transaction, the common shares of ECN converted into C$3.10 per share, in cash and the mandatory convertible preferred shares, Series E of ECN, which were solely held by Champion Canada Holdings Inc., a subs…