Reading CVCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CVCO free→Reading CVCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CVCO free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 64% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $604.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $592 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $369 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 64% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.75 → $5.55 (-3.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$154.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$346.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,468.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal rising costs or lower pricing power in the housing segment.
Confirms:The gross profit margin for factory-built housing is below 21%.
Disproves:The gross profit margin for factory-built housing is above 21%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue and operating income
Record revenue supports growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 21, 2026, Cavco Industries, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), announced financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter and year ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing these financial results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company announced a new $150 million stock repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.
Focus on increasing revenue and operating income through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: More backlogs suggest strong demand in the future. It also shows good capacity.
Confirms:Backlogs are above $200 million.
Disproves:Backlogs are below $200 million.
Why it matters: Getting more revenue shows strong demand. It also shows good pricing strategies.
Confirms:The net revenue for factory-built housing is above $550 million.
Disproves:The net revenue for factory-built housing is below $550 million.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows how well the company manages costs. A drop below 10% could signal trouble.
Confirms:Operating income grew less than 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth reported at 10% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Growth over 10% shows strong demand. It also shows good integration of American Homestar.
Confirms:Q1 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q1 revenue growth is below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Starting buybacks shows confidence in the company's finances. It can help share prices.
Confirms:Cavco announces the first stock repurchase under the new $150 million program.
Disproves:No stock repurchases announced within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Cavco's sales. Strong spending can lead to better revenue for the company.
Confirms one read:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth above 3%.
Confirms the other:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth below 1%.
Advances: Increase revenue and operating income
Earnings call highlights growth and strategy.
Advances: Increase revenue and operating income
Beating EPS forecast indicates strong performance.
Other Events On May 18, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors approved a new $150 million stock repurchase program which was also announced in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The purchases may be made in the open market or one or more privately negotiated transactions in compliance with applicable securities laws and other legal requirements. The actual timing, number and value of shares repurchased under the program will be determined by the Company in its discretion and…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026, Cavco Industries, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), announced financial results for its fiscal third quarter ended December 27, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing these financial results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated in this
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On September 29, 2025, Cavco Industries, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), completed the acquisition of American Homestar Corporation, a Texas corporation (“American Homestar”), pursuant to the previously announced Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of July 14, 2025 (the “Merger Agreement”), by and among the Company, American Homestar, Cavco Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“…