Reading MTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTH free→Reading MTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTH free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, MTH trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If MTH cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $72.91. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $73 MTH trades at 13× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $94 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.64 → $1.30 (-20.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 6 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -25.2% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$133.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$346.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,767.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More communities mean more chances for sales and revenue growth.
Confirms:Community count increases beyond 345 by the end of Q2.
Disproves:Community count remains at or below 345.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MTH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 22, 2026, Meritage Homes Corporation (the "Company") announced in a press release information concerning its results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release, including information concerning forward-looking statements and factors that may affect the Company's future results, is attached as Exhibit 99.1. This press release is being furnished, not filed, under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to keep 2026 revenue at or within 5% of 2025 levels.
Focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet amidst uncertain market conditions.
Expand the number of active communities to drive growth.
The company aimed to reduce its capital expenditure target to $2.0 billion for 2025.
Why it matters: This will show if demand is improving and if the company can stabilize revenue.
Confirms:Q2 home closing revenue reaches at least $1.1 billion.
Disproves:Q2 home closing revenue falls below $1.1 billion.
Why it matters: CPI data can change interest rates and housing demand. This affects Meritage's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:CPI was higher than 3% year-over-year.
Confirms the other:CPI was lower than 2% year-over-year.
Why it matters: If average sales prices stay the same or rise, it shows better pricing power and demand.
Confirms:Average sales price on home orders rises above $382,000.
Disproves:Average sales price on home orders drops below $382,000.
Why it matters: Higher net earnings show better management of profits and how well the business runs.
Confirms:Net earnings for Q2 exceed $55 million.
Disproves:Net earnings for Q2 fall below $55 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may change the Consumer Discretionary sector. This could affect Meritage's performance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: A better gross margin shows improved cost control and stronger pricing power.
Confirms:Q2 gross margin reported above 17.5%.
Disproves:Q2 gross margin reported below 17.5%.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS On March 23, 2026, the Executive Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of Meritage Homes Corporation approved increases in certain components of compensation for Phillippe Lord, Chief Executive Officer, Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Malissia Clinton, Executive Vice President and General Counsel, an…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS On February 17, 2026, Dennis V. Arriola, a member of Meritage Homes Corporation's (the "Company") Board of Directors, notified the Company that he would step down from his position effective March 31, 2026. The resignation did not result from any disagreements with the Company.