Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$64.19+0.88%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Meritage Homes Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-7.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.93 → 5.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.51B
EPS	—	1.489
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.33B
EPS	—	4.804
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.66B
EPS	—	5.493

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net debt-to-capital ratio near 17.4%	The balance sheet remains stable with net debt-to-capital near 17.4%.	Intact	net debt-to-capital ratio rises above 18% next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase active community count to at least 345	A primary condition in Meritage Homes Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=345 active communities.	Intact	community count falls below 335 next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management targets 5-10% year-over-year community count growth for 2026. Actual community count increased 9% year-over-year in Q2 2026 and 19% in Q1 2026, supporting the growth objective. The trajectory is delivering on community expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain gross margin near 19.5%	A primary condition in Meritage Homes Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~19.5% gross margin.	Under Pressure	gross margin falls below 19% in 2025	Gross margin: 22.31% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~19.5% gross margin. Target period ends 2025-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 31, 202622.306357 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue near $1.5 billion in 2025	The company targets revenue near $1.5 billion in 2025.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $1.46B in 2025	Revenue: $1.471B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.5B revenue. Target period ends 2025-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 31, 20261,471,325,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.49

$6.48 → $5.49 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.66B

$5.97B → $5.66B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.48	$5,971,253,920	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$6.48	$5,971,253,920	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$6.48	$5,971,253,920	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$6.48	$5,971,253,920	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$6.48	$5,971,253,920	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$6.34	$5,937,553,046	8 / 7
2026-07-30	$6.48	$5,971,253,920	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$6.48	$5,971,253,920	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$6.14	$5,920,095,002	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$6.48	$5,971,253,920	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$6.34	$5,903,185,640	5 / 8
2026-08-05	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$6.19	$5,869,973,140	6 / 8
2026-08-10	$6.19	$5,869,973,140	6 / 8
2026-08-12	$6.10	$5,820,723,140	6 / 8
2026-08-13	$6.10	$5,820,723,140	6 / 8
2026-08-14	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$6.16	$5,903,897,873	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$6.04	$5,813,183,587	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$5.98	$5,795,799,502	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$5.98	$5,795,799,502	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$5.98	$5,795,799,502	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$5.98	$5,795,799,502	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$5.98	$5,795,799,502	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$5.98	$5,795,799,502	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$5.98	$5,795,799,502	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$5.98	$5,795,799,502	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$5.93	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$5.84	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$5.84	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$5.84	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$5.84	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$5.84	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$5.84	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$5.84	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$5.84	$5,791,012,064	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$5.73	$5,776,444,057	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$5.65	$5,720,754,260	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$5.65	$5,720,754,260	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$5.65	$5,720,754,260	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$5.65	$5,720,754,260	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$5.65	$5,720,754,260	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$5.56	$5,699,729,483	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$5.56	$5,699,729,483	9 / 8
2026-10-15	$5.56	$5,699,729,483	9 / 8
2026-10-16	$5.56	$5,699,729,483	9 / 8
2026-10-17	$5.56	$5,699,729,483	9 / 8
2026-10-18	$5.56	$5,699,729,483	9 / 8
2026-10-19	$5.56	$5,699,729,483	9 / 8
2026-10-20	$5.56	$5,699,729,483	9 / 8
2026-10-21	$5.56	$5,699,729,483	9 / 8
2026-10-22	$5.56	$5,699,729,483	9 / 8
2026-10-23	$5.49	$5,662,173,927	9 / 8
2026-10-24	$5.49	$5,662,173,927	9 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	5
2026-06-01	5	5
2026-07-01	5	4
2026-08-01	5	4
2026-09-01	5	5
2026-10-01	4	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 12 · prior Jul 10

$93.00 → $82.00-11.8%

Evercore ISISep 25

$65.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$51.15$102.30

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net debt-to-capital ratio near 17.4%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase active community count to at least 345Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain gross margin near 19.5%Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve revenue near $1.5 billion in 2025Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Meritage Homes Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical homebuilder thesis, tied to housing demand and conditions across the consumer sector. The thesis is in a watch state: community growth and capital returns are on track, while recent results remain below the industry cohort.

What's priced into Meritage Homes Corporation

MTH is valued cheaply versus peers, and the evidence suggests weak execution quality is recognized without a broader stack of expensive valuation and turbulence. The expectations picture is mixed: management has lowered 2026 guidance, while a recent earnings beat offers a more positive signal.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, home closing revenue and volume are under pressure: both fell year over year in the first half of 2026, consistent with the updated full-year guidance of about 5% below 2025. Community count growth and shareholder returns are progressing, with strong cash and liquidity, but recent misses and declining earnings surprises point to fragile earnings quality.

What Meritage Homes Corporation hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from DHI, PHM, and LEN could support sector momentum. Misses or lower guidance from those homebuilders could remove that tailwind; MTH’s ability to manage the expected decline in closings while sustaining community growth is also central to the multi-year view.