Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$63.82-0.95%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
Meritage Homes expands its active communities to 345, driving growth. The company targets revenue near $1.5 billion in 2025. Profit margins are expected around 19.5%. The balance sheet remains stable with net debt-to-capital near 17.4%.
Sales fell 17% year-over-year in Q1 2026, missing EPS by 16%. The company faces soft guidance and increased leverage. Market headwinds in residential construction may pressure margins and growth.
The price is about 13% above our fair value near $69. The market expects modest growth around 4% over three years. Our view is cautious given recent earnings misses and soft guidance.
Breaks if: net debt-to-capital ratio rises above 18% next quarter
Breaks if: community count falls below 335 next quarter
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 19% in 2025
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation with potential for recovery. However, the current thesis state is weakened due to recent performance declines and market pressures.
The market appears to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, reflecting low expectations for performance. There is a fragility in execution quality that suggests caution among investors.
Management is focused on maintaining home closing volume and revenue, but recent results show a decline in these areas. The company is on track with capital allocation and community growth, but overall financial performance is mixed.
The future of MTH depends on management's ability to meet guidance and the broader sector's performance. Key factors include potential guidance cuts and inflation trends that could impact consumer spending.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change reflects a lower outlook that may hinder revenue consistency with 2025. The latest earnings beat is not enough to offset these challenges.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $1.46B in 2025
Over the next 1-3 years, MTH's performance will be closely tied to its ability to navigate market challenges and execute its growth strategies effectively. Not investment advice.