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Lennar (LEN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$89.77+0.02%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If LEN cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- Market cap
- $22.24B
- Employees
- 12,532
- IPO date
- 1996-05-21
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $89.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$154.72consensus
Range $116.57 – $269.77
vs price: -42% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$247.36consensus
Range $145.74 – $352.78
vs price: -64% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $90 LEN trades at 14× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $155 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $67–$94. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.4x
peer 18.7x · own history 10.8x
Premium
0.8x peer
1.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
-43%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$154.72
range $116.57 – $269.77
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 43% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
59th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
6th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish6 PT revisions / 30d, avg -11.0% above currentfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.74 → $1.72 (-1.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 7 maintained. 10% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -11.0% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$421.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,171.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q3 2026 home deliveries between 20,500 and 21,500 homes
Why it matters: This range shows if Lennar can meet its growth target amid market challenges. Meeting this target signals strong operational execution.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Deliveries fall within the range of 20,500 to 21,500 homes.
Disproves:Deliveries are less than 20,500 homes.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-124d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Improve gross margin to approximately 16%
Strong margins reported align with management's margin improvement goal.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like DHI, PHM, and NVR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting LEN and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LEN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LEN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like DHI, PHM, and NVR start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping LEN and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits LEN and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-116d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 11, 2026, Lennar Corporation issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the second quarter ended May 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in the preceding paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (t…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+8.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.