Lennar (LEN)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$77.08-0.79%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lennar’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-16.7% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.35 → 5.29 EPS · FY ending Nov 30, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $100M-$110M in Financial Services Operating Earnings in 2026-Q2	Financial Services operating earnings are expected to rise to $100 million to $110 million.	Intact	Financial Services earnings fall below $100M in 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Financial Services operating earnings declined from $178 million in 2025-Q3 to $129 million in 2026-Q3, below the $100M-$110M quarterly guidance range. Management continues to target this range, but actual earnings show a declining trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Improve gross margin to approximately 16% in 2026	Gross margin is guided to improve to approximately 16%.	Under Pressure	gross margin falls below 15% in 2026-Q2	Gross margin: 16.56% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: approximately 16%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 2, 202616.561736 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Gross margin declined from approximately 17.5% in 2025-Q4 to 15.8% in 2026-Q3, reflecting market softness and cost pressures. Management continues to target approximately 16% gross margin in 2026, showing limited progress but consistent focus on margin improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Deliver approximately 82,000 to 83,000 homes in FY 2026	Lennar aims to deliver about 82,000 to 83,000 homes in 2026.	Under Pressure	home deliveries fall below 82,000 in FY 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management moderated full-year 2026 home delivery guidance from approximately 85,000 homes in 2025-Q4 to 82,000-83,000 homes by 2026-Q3. Actual deliveries in 2026-Q3 were 20,840 homes within quarterly guidance. Year-to-date deliveries in 2026 show a slight decline compared to 2025, reflecting market softness. The trajectory shows management adjusting targets downward but delivering volume close to guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain SG&A expense ratio near 9% in 2026-Q2	A supporting condition in Lennar's published investment case. The stated target is 8.8% to 9.0%.	Under Pressure	SG&A ratio rises above 9.5% in 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. SG&A expense ratio was 9.8% in 2026-Q1 and improved slightly to 9.2% in 2026-Q3, close to the targeted 8.8%-9.0% range. Management has maintained focus on disciplined SG&A control with limited progress toward the lower end of the target range. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.29

$6.60 → $5.29 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$31.99B

$34.15B → $31.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.60	$34,151,573,920	11 / 8
2026-07-25	$6.48	$33,875,473,919	11 / 8
2026-07-26	$6.48	$33,875,473,919	11 / 8
2026-07-27	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-07-28	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-07-29	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-07-30	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-07-31	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-01	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-02	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-03	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-04	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-05	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-06	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-07	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-08	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-09	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-10	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-12	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-13	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-14	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-15	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-16	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-17	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-18	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-19	$6.51	$33,344,613,669	11 / 7
2026-08-20	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 7
2026-08-21	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 7
2026-08-22	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 7
2026-08-23	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 7
2026-08-24	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 7
2026-08-25	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 6
2026-08-26	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 6
2026-08-27	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 6
2026-08-28	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 6
2026-08-29	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 6
2026-08-30	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 6
2026-08-31	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 6
2026-09-01	$6.43	$33,308,510,562	11 / 6
2026-09-02	$6.43	$33,287,773,134	11 / 6
2026-09-03	$6.43	$33,287,773,134	11 / 6
2026-09-04	$6.43	$33,287,773,134	11 / 6
2026-09-05	$6.43	$33,264,588,258	12 / 6
2026-09-06	$6.43	$33,264,588,258	12 / 6
2026-09-07	$6.43	$33,264,588,258	12 / 6
2026-09-08	$6.43	$33,264,588,258	12 / 7
2026-09-09	$6.39	$33,165,450,638	12 / 7
2026-09-10	$6.39	$33,165,450,638	12 / 7
2026-09-11	$6.39	$33,165,450,638	12 / 7
2026-09-12	$6.37	$33,165,453,538	12 / 7
2026-09-13	$6.37	$33,165,453,538	12 / 7
2026-09-14	$6.37	$33,165,453,538	12 / 7
2026-09-15	$6.35	$33,099,253,459	12 / 7
2026-09-16	$6.35	$33,099,253,459	12 / 7
2026-09-17	$6.32	$33,101,480,125	12 / 7
2026-09-18	$6.32	$33,101,480,125	12 / 7
2026-09-19	$5.48	$32,085,150,997	11 / 7
2026-09-20	$5.48	$32,085,150,997	11 / 7
2026-09-21	$5.48	$32,042,817,663	11 / 7
2026-09-22	$5.37	$32,009,288,617	11 / 7
2026-09-23	$5.37	$32,009,288,617	11 / 7
2026-09-24	$5.37	$32,009,288,617	11 / 7
2026-09-25	$5.37	$32,009,288,617	11 / 7
2026-09-26	$5.37	$32,009,288,617	11 / 7
2026-09-27	$5.37	$32,009,288,617	11 / 7
2026-09-28	$5.37	$32,009,288,617	11 / 7
2026-09-29	$5.37	$32,009,288,617	11 / 7
2026-09-30	$5.37	$32,009,288,617	11 / 6
2026-10-01	$5.37	$32,009,288,617	11 / 6
2026-10-02	$5.35	$31,971,325,780	11 / 6
2026-10-03	$5.35	$31,971,325,780	12 / 6
2026-10-04	$5.35	$31,971,325,780	12 / 7
2026-10-05	$5.35	$31,971,325,780	12 / 7
2026-10-06	$5.35	$31,971,325,780	12 / 7
2026-10-07	$5.34	$31,990,418,381	12 / 7
2026-10-08	$5.34	$31,990,418,381	12 / 7
2026-10-09	$5.34	$31,990,418,381	13 / 7
2026-10-10	$5.29	$31,990,418,381	13 / 8
2026-10-11	$5.29	$31,990,418,381	12 / 8
2026-10-12	$5.29	$31,990,418,381	12 / 8
2026-10-13	$5.29	$31,990,418,381	12 / 8
2026-10-14	$5.29	$31,990,418,381	12 / 7
2026-10-15	$5.29	$31,990,423,834	12 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	9	8
2026-06-01	2	9	9
2026-07-01	2	8	8
2026-08-01	2	8	8
2026-09-01	2	9	8
2026-10-01	2	9	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 10 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 7 · prior Sep 11

$80.00 → $75.00-6.3%

Morgan StanleyOct 1

$65.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalSep 18 · prior Jun 15

$85.00 → $69.00-18.8%

BarclaysSep 18 · prior Jun 15

$79.00 → $70.00-11.4%

BTIGSep 18 · prior Jun 15

$67.00 → $63.00-6.0%

Truist FinancialSep 16 · prior Aug 6

$80.00 → $75.00-6.3%

$0$46.75$93.50

0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $100M-$110M in Financial Services Operating Earnings in 2026-Q2Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Improve gross margin to approximately 16% in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Deliver approximately 82,000 to 83,000 homes in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain SG&A expense ratio near 9% in 2026-Q2Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lennar outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder facing some near-term challenges. The current thesis state indicates a cautious outlook due to mixed performance and sector pressures.

What's priced into Lennar

The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality, reflecting a justified valuation that is cheap compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that the market is not overly optimistic about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure due to mixed management execution and a softening market. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with earnings surprises trending down, which could impact future results.

What Lennar hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet delivery and margin targets, as well as external factors like inflation and sector performance. Key scenarios include potential guidance cuts or positive momentum from sector peers.