Reading BZH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BZH free→Reading BZH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BZH free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BZH is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 448% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 BZH trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $5.08 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 438% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 10.70x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.79 → $-0.34 (-143.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$471.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,498.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's decision will impact interest rates. This affects mortgage rates and housing demand.
Confirms one read:The FOMC raises rates. This shows they trust the economy and helps housing demand.
Confirms the other:The FOMC cuts rates. This shows economic weakness that may hurt housing demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BZH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026 , Beazer Homes USA, Inc. issued a press release announcing results of operations for the three and six months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 in Item 9.01, is "furnished" and shall not be deemed to be "filed" with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing under t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BZH Beazer Homes USA, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Reduce net debt to net capitalization ratio to the low-30% range by the end of fiscal 2027.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has reiterated its commitment to deleverage to the low-30% range by 2027. The financials do not provide specific updates on the current leverage ratio, indicating limited progress in this area.
“Further progress toward our 2027 goals for deleveraging.”
“Deleverage to the low-30% range by the end of fiscal 2027.”
“Attaining a net debt to net capitalization ratio in the low 30% range.”
Increase book value per share to the mid-$50s by the end of fiscal 2027.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company aims to grow book value per share to the mid-$50s by 2027. Current financials do not provide specific updates on book value per share, suggesting limited substantive delivery so far.
“Further progress toward our 2027 goals for book value per share growth.”
“Grow book value per share into the mid-$50s by the end of fiscal 2027.”
Why it matters: This report will indicate consumer spending trends. A strong report could signal recovery in the sector.
Confirms:Retail sales growth exceeds 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth is negative or below 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: This report will show if Beazer can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show profits again.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued losses or a wider loss than expected.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 13, 2026 , Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (the “Company”) executed a third amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Credit Agreement, dated as of October 13, 2022, among the Company, the several lenders from time to time parties thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as an issuing lender and administrative agent (as amended on and prior to March 13, 2026 , the “Credit Agreement”). The Amendment, among other things, extends the termination date under the…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026 , Beazer Homes USA, Inc. issued a press release announcing results of operations for the three months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 in Item 9.01, is "furnished" and shall not be deemed to be "filed" with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing under the…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On December 9, 2025 , Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (the “Company”) (NYSE: BZH), announced that Danny Shepherd will retire from the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”), effective as of the Company’s next annual meeting of stockholders. In connection with Mr. Shepherd’s retirement from the Board, the Company also announced that Howard C. Heckes has b…
“Generating double-digit growth in book value per share.”