Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$33.250.00%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Beazer Homes plans to reduce debt to low 30% by 2027. The company announced a $400 million share buyback in June 2026. Analysts expect revenue growth of about 14% next year. The stock price is down 6.5% from its high, offering some value.
Weak demand may hurt Beazer's plan to cut debt. Earnings estimates have fallen recently. The company still loses money and faces volatile management. The stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 91.
The price is about 36% above our fair value near $20. Analysts expect 14% revenue growth, but estimates have recently dropped.
Breaks if: buyback is canceled or significantly delayed
Breaks if: debt to capital ratio remains above 30% at FY27
Breaks if: EPS remains negative in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to recent weak financial performance and elevated risks in the market.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not fully accounting for the potential turbulence ahead. BZH is viewed as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap suggesting that the market anticipates challenges.
Fundamentals may show limited improvement as management works on fiscal goals, but recent results indicate ongoing struggles with revenue decline and net losses. The near-term risk of missing earnings estimates is low, although the company has a history of erratic surprises.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance, the impact of inflation on consumer spending, and the performance of sector peers. Positive momentum from industry leaders could provide a lift, while unfavorable economic conditions could pose significant challenges.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a more favorable outlook. Additionally, the acquisition by Dream Finders Homes is expected to enhance growth and market position.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue growth falls below 14% in FY27
In the next 1 to 3 years, BZH's performance will depend on management's execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.