Reading LEGH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact LEGH's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 LEGH trades at 14× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $23 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 15% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.92x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.68 (+13.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$155.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$331.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,337.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report shows consumer spending trends. These trends affect Legacy Housing's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales go up month over month. This shows stronger consumer spending.
Confirms the other:Retail sales go down month over month. This suggests weaker consumer demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Earnings beat indicates strong operational performance.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information contained in the Press Release issued by the Company on May 7, 2026, reporting the Company’s first quarter 2026 financial results, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is incorporated herein by reference. Such information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) is furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LEGH Legacy Housing Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | elevated |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates and consumer spending. These are key for Legacy Housing.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows confidence in the economy.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates. This suggests there are economic concerns.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 18, 2025, the Board of Directors of the Company appointed Jon Langbert, age 60, as Chief Financial Officer of the Company. Before joining the Company, Mr. Langbert provided advisory services to and invested in early-stage companies. Mr. Langbert served as the President of Plush Suites, which developed an all-suite, upscale extended-stay…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information contained in the Press Release issued by the Company on November 7, 2025, reporting the Company’s preliminary unaudited third quarter 2025 product sales and deliveries of floor sections, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is incorporated herein by reference. Such information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) is furnished pursuant to
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On October 6, 2025, Jeffrey M. Fiedelman, the Chief Financial Officer of the Company, submitted his resignation, effective October 10, 2025. Mr. Fiedelman’s resignation was a personal decision and is not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s financial operations, policies or procedures. On Octob…