NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Increase revenue to $33.5-$34.5 billion in fiscal 2026: FY26 revenue guidance $32.75B vs $33.5B target.
D.R. Horton is growing revenue toward $33.5-$34.5 billion in 2026. The company repurchased $1.6 billion in shares in the first half of 2026. Profitability remains solid with recent earnings beats. The stock trades cheap versus peers at a P/E of 14.6.
Macro headwinds and housing market challenges could slow revenue growth below targets. Legal claims about construction quality may hurt reputation and sales. The company’s revenue fell from $9.7 billion in 2025-Q4 to $7.6 billion in 2026-Q2, showing pressure.
The price is about 9% below our fair value near $171. Analysts expect 6% revenue growth, which aligns with management’s guidance. Our view is cautious given macro risks and recent revenue softness.
Breaks if: Dividends fall well below $500 million in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 6% next year due to macro factors
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has shown signs of fragility despite a high confidence level.
The market currently prices DHI as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, the fragility in earnings quality suggests that the market is aware of potential execution risks.
Management aims to increase revenues and home closings, but recent downward revisions indicate challenges. The company has a low probability of missing its targets, but recent industry trends show peers have struggled, which could impact DHI's performance.
Key factors include management's ability to meet revised guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like PHM, LEN, and NVR. Additionally, inflation trends and potential Fed rate cuts will play a significant role in shaping the outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. DHI's recent financial performance fell to the 50th percentile. This drop shows a change in the company's standing among peers. The latest earnings beat was not enough to offset this decline. The company also cut its revenue forecast, which impacts growth targets.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $33.5 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Repurchases fall significantly short of $2.5 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DHI's performance will depend on execution against targets and broader economic conditions. Not investment advice.
