Toll Brothers (TOL)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$139.90-0.84%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Toll Brothers’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.94 → 13.67 EPS · FY ending Oct 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-10-31
Revenue	—	3.52B
EPS	—	4.889
Annual ending 2026-10-31
Revenue	—	10.8B
EPS	—	12.712
Annual ending 2027-10-31
Revenue	—	10.92B
EPS	—	13.672

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Repurchase $175 million of common stock in 2026-Q2	It repurchased $175 million of stock in 2026-Q2.	Intact	stock repurchase falls below $100 million in 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase community count by 9% year-over-year to 459	A primary condition in Toll Brothers's published investment case. The stated target is 459 communities by 2026-Q2.	Intact	community count growth falls below 5% year-over-year next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross margin near 26% to 27%	A primary condition in Toll Brothers's published investment case. The stated target is >=26% gross margin next two quarters.	Intact	gross margin falls below 24% next two quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Raise full year guidance across key home building metrics by ~10%	A primary condition in Toll Brothers's published investment case. The stated target is Raise guidance by at least 10% for July and October 2026.	Under Pressure	guidance cut or fails to raise by 5% next two quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year guidance in 2026-Q2 and reaffirmed it in 2026-Q3, with home sales revenue guidance at approximately $10.5 billion and adjusted gross margin at 26.1%. The trajectory shows management maintaining or raising guidance consistent with reported performance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-10-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.67

$14.15 → $13.67 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$10.92B

$11.03B → $10.92B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-07-25	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-07-26	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-07-28	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-07-29	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-07-30	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-07-31	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-02	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-04	$14.15	$11,068,455,460	15 / 14
2026-08-05	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-06	$14.15	$11,068,455,460	15 / 14
2026-08-08	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-09	$14.15	$11,068,455,460	15 / 14
2026-08-10	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-12	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-13	$14.15	$11,068,455,460	15 / 14
2026-08-14	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-15	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-16	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-17	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-18	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-19	$14.15	$11,034,033,422	12 / 11
2026-08-20	$14.05	$10,986,469,579	12 / 11
2026-08-21	$14.08	$11,022,723,790	12 / 11
2026-08-22	$14.08	$11,022,723,790	12 / 11
2026-08-23	$14.08	$11,022,723,790	12 / 11
2026-08-24	$14.08	$11,022,723,790	12 / 11
2026-08-25	$14.08	$11,022,723,790	12 / 11
2026-08-26	$14.08	$11,022,723,790	12 / 11
2026-08-27	$14.08	$11,022,723,790	12 / 11
2026-08-28	$14.08	$11,022,723,790	12 / 11
2026-08-29	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-08-30	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-08-31	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-09-01	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-09-02	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-09-03	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-09-04	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-09-05	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-09-06	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-09-07	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-09-08	$14.10	$11,034,795,219	12 / 11
2026-09-09	$14.06	$11,006,659,819	12 / 11
2026-09-10	$14.04	$11,006,659,819	12 / 11
2026-09-11	$14.06	$11,006,659,819	12 / 10
2026-09-12	$14.06	$11,006,625,597	13 / 11
2026-09-13	$14.06	$11,006,625,597	13 / 11
2026-09-14	$14.06	$11,006,625,597	13 / 11
2026-09-15	$14.06	$11,006,625,597	13 / 11
2026-09-16	$14.06	$11,006,625,597	13 / 11
2026-09-17	$14.05	$11,013,882,740	13 / 11
2026-09-18	$14.05	$11,013,882,740	13 / 11
2026-09-19	$14.05	$11,013,882,740	13 / 11
2026-09-20	$14.05	$11,013,882,740	13 / 11
2026-09-21	$14.05	$11,013,882,740	13 / 11
2026-09-22	$14.05	$11,013,882,740	13 / 11
2026-09-23	$13.94	$11,013,882,740	13 / 11
2026-09-24	$13.94	$11,013,882,740	13 / 11
2026-09-25	$13.94	$11,013,882,740	13 / 11
2026-09-26	$13.94	$11,013,916,962	13 / 11
2026-09-27	$13.94	$11,013,916,962	12 / 10
2026-09-28	$13.94	$11,013,916,962	12 / 10
2026-09-29	$13.90	$11,013,916,962	12 / 10
2026-09-30	$13.90	$11,013,916,962	12 / 10
2026-10-01	$13.90	$11,013,916,962	12 / 10
2026-10-02	$13.90	$11,013,916,962	12 / 10
2026-10-03	$13.83	$10,993,093,107	12 / 10
2026-10-04	$13.83	$10,993,093,107	12 / 10
2026-10-05	$13.83	$10,993,093,107	13 / 11
2026-10-06	$13.83	$10,993,093,107	13 / 11
2026-10-07	$13.83	$10,993,093,107	13 / 11
2026-10-08	$13.82	$11,012,424,787	13 / 11
2026-10-09	$13.82	$11,012,394,846	14 / 12
2026-10-10	$13.82	$11,012,394,846	14 / 12
2026-10-11	$13.82	$11,012,394,846	14 / 12
2026-10-12	$13.82	$11,012,394,846	14 / 12
2026-10-13	$13.80	$10,992,965,721	14 / 12
2026-10-14	$13.80	$10,992,965,721	14 / 12
2026-10-15	$13.80	$10,992,965,721	14 / 12
2026-10-16	$13.71	$10,950,984,150	14 / 12
2026-10-17	$13.71	$10,950,984,150	14 / 12
2026-10-18	$13.72	$10,937,985,082	15 / 13
2026-10-19	$13.72	$10,937,985,082	15 / 13
2026-10-20	$13.72	$10,937,985,082	15 / 13
2026-10-21	$13.72	$10,937,985,082	15 / 13
2026-10-22	$13.72	$10,937,985,082	15 / 13
2026-10-23	$13.67	$10,916,867,435	15 / 13
2026-10-24	$13.67	$10,916,867,435	15 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	6	1
2026-06-01	13	6	1
2026-07-01	13	5	1
2026-08-01	13	4	1
2026-09-01	13	4	1
2026-10-01	16	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 8

$175.00New observation · no comparable prior

Melius ResearchOct 6

$179.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 1

$159.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISISep 25 · prior Aug 20

$191.00 → $184.00-3.7%

$0$105.05$210.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Repurchase $175 million of common stock in 2026-Q2Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase community count by 9% year-over-year to 459Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain gross margin near 26% to 27%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Raise full year guidance across key home building metrics by ~10%Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Dec 14, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Toll Brothers outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TOL is a homebuilding business with a multi-year view tied to expanding its communities and delivering on financial plans. The thesis state has shifted from robust to fragile this week, as recent performance fell to the lower half of its industry.

What's priced into Toll Brothers

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and it has fallen by 11.3 points recently. The priced-in assessment says the discount is justified by weak execution quality, while the expectations gap is slightly negative; evidence on the market’s specific assumptions is limited.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has reaffirmed full-year guidance, and community growth and capital returns are on track. However, earnings quality is fragile, and the company has a history of deep and recent misses, so guidance execution remains a risk despite a low stated miss probability.

What Toll Brothers hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued community growth and management delivering on its homebuilding targets. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while results and guidance from DHI, PHM, and LEN could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.