Toll Brothers (TOL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$135.05-0.99%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Toll Brothers grew its communities by 9% to 459 in 2026-Q2. The company raised guidance for July and October 2026 by about 10%. It repurchased $175 million of stock in 2026-Q2. Profit margins are expected near 26% to 27% in coming quarters.
The company cut guidance recently despite beating earnings. Analysts expect almost no revenue growth next year. Rating downgrades warn of valuation pressure. The housing market may weaken, hurting sales and profits.
The price is about 8% below our fair value near $164. Analysts expect almost no revenue growth next year. Our fair value is close to the Street median near $170.
Breaks if: stock repurchase falls below $100 million in 2026-Q2
Breaks if: community count growth falls below 5% year-over-year next year
gross margin falls below 24% next two quarters
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on community growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis is stable, supported by management's commitment to growth and capital return despite sector headwinds.
The market currently prices TOL as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully account for the company's potential to maintain its performance amidst industry challenges.
Management is on track to grow community count and return capital to shareholders, which supports a positive fundamental outlook. However, recent financial performance has been mixed, and there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially given the broader industry context.
The thesis hinges on TOL's ability to maintain or raise guidance in the next earnings call and the performance of sector peers. Additionally, any changes in inflation rates could impact the company's outlook and the Consumer Discretionary sector as a whole.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Toll Brothers' recent financial performance fell to the 49th percentile. This is down from the robust 58th percentile. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance despite declining revenue. Housing market conditions are challenging, affecting affordability and demand. This creates expectations of softer demand in the industry.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: guidance cut or fails to raise by 5% next two quarters
Overall, TOL's fundamentals are positioned to support its long-term thesis, but external factors could influence its trajectory. Not investment advice.