Reading TENB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TENB free→Reading TENB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TENB free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, which may help. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 TENB trades at 22× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $39 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $21–$34. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -22.71x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.47 (+0.0% / 30d). 21 raised, 0 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 46% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -97.5% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$198.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$476.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,477.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Tenable can improve its financial performance. Investors look for signs of growth or continued losses.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TENB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before or after today’s date, rega…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$21.00 – $34.00 (median $27.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TENB Tenable Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve revenue between $1.068 billion and $1.078 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $239.1M in 2025-Q1 to $262.1M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the $1.068B-$1.078B target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated growth priority.
“For the year ending December 31, 2026, we currently expect: Revenue in the range of $1.068 billion to $1.078 billion.”
“For the year ending December 31, 2026, we currently expect: Revenue in the range of $1.065 billion to $1.075 billion.”
The Board of Directors approved an increase to the share repurchase program by up to an additional $150 million.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The Board approved a $150M increase to the share repurchase program. No specific buyback activity reported in the financials, indicating limited progress on this capital allocation priority so far.
“The Company's Board of Directors approved an increase to the Company's existing share repurchase program of up to an additional $150 million.”
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it may signal a slowdown for Tenable. This could impact its market position.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth has been below its median for two months in a row.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for the same period.
of this Current Report on 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before or after today’s date, regardles…
Other Events. On January 15, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors approved an increase to the Company's existing share repurchase program of up to an additional $150 million, which is also announced in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. Repurchases under the share repurchase program may be made in the open market, in privately negotiated transactions or in such other manner as determined by the Company, including through repurchase plans complying with the rules and…
of this Current Report on 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before or after today’s date, regardles…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On August 19, 2025, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Tenable Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Matthew Brown as Chief Financial Officer and "principal financial officer" of the Company for purposes of Section 16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), effective August 21, 2025. Mr. Brown succeeds Stephe…