Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.59+6.17%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Tenable Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.17 → 2.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	276.42M
EPS	—	0.498
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.08B
EPS	—	1.987
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.16B
EPS	—	2.188

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS rises to $1.9-$1.98 in FY26	A primary condition in Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $1.9-$1.98.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.9 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.03 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.9-$1.98. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20260.03 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e2b1ce30-3f4e-4e42-8a9d-438c10b368b6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to $1.068B-$1.078B in FY26	A primary condition in Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $1.068B-$1.078B.	Broken	Revenue falls below $1.068B in FY26	Revenue: $268.508M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.068B-$1.078B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026268,508,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e2b1ce30-3f4e-4e42-8a9d-438c10b368b6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchase program increases by $150M	A supporting condition in Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Increase repurchase program by $150M.	Intact	No further buyback increases or buybacks cease	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.19

$2.17 → $2.19 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.16B

$1.15B → $1.16B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.17	$1,150,987,560	23 / 22
2026-07-25	$2.17	$1,150,987,560	23 / 22
2026-07-26	$2.16	$1,151,382,554	13 / 17
2026-07-27	$2.16	$1,151,382,554	13 / 17
2026-07-28	$2.17	$1,150,987,560	23 / 22
2026-07-29	$2.17	$1,150,987,560	23 / 22
2026-07-30	$2.17	$1,151,135,290	23 / 22
2026-07-31	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-01	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-02	$2.18	$1,156,097,650	23 / 22
2026-08-03	$2.18	$1,156,097,650	23 / 22
2026-08-04	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-05	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-06	$2.18	$1,156,097,650	23 / 22
2026-08-08	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-09	$2.18	$1,156,097,650	23 / 22
2026-08-10	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-12	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-13	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-14	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-15	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-16	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-17	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-18	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-19	$2.18	$1,156,664,567	13 / 17
2026-08-20	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-21	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-22	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-23	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-24	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-25	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-26	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-27	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-28	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-29	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-30	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-08-31	$2.18	$1,156,548,592	13 / 17
2026-09-01	$2.18	$1,156,866,022	13 / 17
2026-09-02	$2.18	$1,156,866,022	13 / 17
2026-09-03	$2.18	$1,156,866,022	13 / 17
2026-09-04	$2.18	$1,156,866,022	13 / 17
2026-09-05	$2.18	$1,156,866,022	13 / 17
2026-09-06	$2.18	$1,156,866,022	13 / 17
2026-09-07	$2.18	$1,156,866,022	13 / 17
2026-09-08	$2.18	$1,156,866,022	13 / 17
2026-09-09	$2.18	$1,156,866,022	13 / 17
2026-09-10	$2.18	$1,156,866,022	13 / 17
2026-09-11	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	13 / 17
2026-09-12	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-09-13	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-09-14	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	13 / 17
2026-09-15	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	13 / 17
2026-09-16	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	13 / 17
2026-09-17	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	13 / 17
2026-09-18	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	13 / 17
2026-09-19	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	13 / 17
2026-09-20	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-09-21	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-09-22	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-09-23	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-09-24	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-09-25	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-09-26	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-09-27	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-09-28	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-09-29	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-09-30	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-10-01	$2.17	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-10-02	$2.17	$1,156,190,366	14 / 17
2026-10-03	$2.17	$1,156,190,366	14 / 17
2026-10-04	$2.17	$1,156,190,366	14 / 17
2026-10-05	$2.17	$1,156,190,366	14 / 17
2026-10-06	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-10-07	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-10-08	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-10-09	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-10-10	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-10-11	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-10-12	$2.17	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-10-13	$2.19	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-10-14	$2.19	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-10-15	$2.19	$1,156,181,925	14 / 17
2026-10-16	$2.19	$1,155,949,735	14 / 17
2026-10-17	$2.19	$1,155,949,735	14 / 17
2026-10-18	$2.19	$1,155,949,735	14 / 17
2026-10-19	$2.19	$1,155,949,735	14 / 17
2026-10-20	$2.19	$1,156,181,927	14 / 17
2026-10-21	$2.19	$1,156,105,737	14 / 17
2026-10-22	$2.19	$1,156,105,737	14 / 17
2026-10-23	$2.19	$1,156,105,737	14 / 17
2026-10-24	$2.19	$1,156,105,737	14 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	12	0
2026-06-01	11	12	1
2026-07-01	12	13	2
2026-08-01	9	13	2
2026-09-01	9	13	2
2026-10-01	8	13	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 20 · prior Jul 21

$40.00 → $35.00-12.5%

$0$22.00$44.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS rises to $1.9-$1.98 in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue grows to $1.068B-$1.078B in FY26Published status: Broken
Share repurchase program increases by $150MDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Tenable Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TENB is a growing cybersecurity business with a mixed, execution-dependent long-term thesis, rather than a proven profitable compounder. Recent financial performance is strong relative to its industry, but the company remains loss-making and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Tenable Holdings, Inc.

The evidence describes TENB as cheap versus peers, with expectations somewhat below the model’s baseline and no identified fragility triggers. That leaves room for the business to execute without relying on unusually high expectations, though the valuation model has only medium confidence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and full-year guidance are on track, while management is actively carrying out its expanded share repurchase program. AI platform investment continues, but its financial contribution is not yet measured in the evidence; the signal also shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, and a recent quarter miss adds caution.

What Tenable Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on whether TENB sustains revenue growth toward its 2026 guidance and turns product investment into measurable business results. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or continued strength from major technology companies could provide a favorable sector backdrop.