Reading SVCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SVCO free→Reading SVCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 SVCO trades at 5× p/s — 1.7× the 3× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $25 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 52% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.58x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $0.01 (+200.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$208.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$683.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,992.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may hurt Silvaco's performance in a decelerating growth phase.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is lower than average. This shows possible challenges ahead.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is higher than average. This suggests stability in the market.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SVCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant On May 21, 2026, Baker Tilly US, LLP (“Baker Tilly”), the former independent registered public accounting firm for Silvaco Group, Inc. (the “Company”), was dismissed, and on May 27, 2026, KPMG LLP (“KPMG”) was engaged as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. The decision to change independent accountants was made by the Audit Committee of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Audit Committee”). Moss Adams LLP (“Moss Adams”)…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SVCO Silvaco Group, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve a non-GAAP gross margin of around 88% for Q2 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross margin improved from 85% in 2026-Q1 to 88% guidance for 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows progress towards the stated margin improvement goal.
“The Company expects for second quarter 2026 a non-GAAP gross margin of around 88%.”
“Non-GAAP gross margin of around 85%.”
The company has set a revenue guidance of $18 million for the second quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $17M in 2026-Q1 to $18M in 2026-Q2. This indicates a positive trajectory in revenue expectations.
“The Company expects for second quarter 2026 revenue of $18.0 million +/- 10%.”
The company aims to manage non-GAAP operating expenses to $15.5 million for Q2 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating expenses guidance narrowed to $15.5M for 2026-Q2, consistent with prior quarter's midpoint. This reflects a stable cost management approach.
“Non-GAAP operating expenses of $15.5 million +/- 5%.”
“Non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $14.5 million to $16.5 million.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Silvaco Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026, and posted to its website supplemental financial information in connection therewith. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished under this
Other Items. As previously reported, on March 13, 2026, Silvaco Group, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Open Market Sale Agreement℠ (the “Sales Agreement”) with Jefferies LLC (the “Sales Agent”), pursuant to which the Company may offer and sell from time to time, at its option through the Sales Agent, shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.0001 par value per share (the “Shares”). The Shares are issued pursuant to the Company’s registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-291212), wh…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, Silvaco Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, and posted to its website supplemental financial information in connection therewith. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished under this
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 13, 2026, Silvaco Group, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Open Market Sale Agreement SM (the “Sales Agreement”) with Jefferies LLC, as sales agent (the “Sales Agent”), pursuant to which the Company may offer and sell from time to time, at its option through the Sales Agent, shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.0001 par value per share, having an aggregate offering price of up to $15.0 million (the "Shares"). The issuance and sale, i…
“Revenue in the range of $15 million to $19 million.”