Silvaco Group, Inc. (SVCO)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.00-0.99%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Silvaco Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$15.3M–$18.7M	—
Gross margin	About 88%non-GAAP	—
Operating expenses	$13.78M–$15.23Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	18.91M
EPS	—	0.049
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	71.56M
EPS	—	0.053
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	80.75M
EPS	—	0.2

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve gross margin to 88% in Q2 2026	Gross margin is targeted to improve to 88%.	Improving	gross margin falls below 85% in 2026-Q2	Gross margin: 85.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 88%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 202685.151073 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1e906ee0-9c53-4615-b077-f5f6a7bb7902. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin improved from about 79.5% in 2025-Q2 to 87% in 2026-Q2. Guidance projects maintaining around 88% gross margin in Q3 and Q4 2026. The trajectory shows delivering improvement and sustaining high gross margin levels. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Control operating expenses near $15.5 million in Q2 2026	The company manages operating expenses near $15.5 million.	Intact	operating expenses exceed $16 million in 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management guided non-GAAP operating expenses near $15.5M in Q2 2026 and $14.5M in Q3 2026. Q2 2026 non-GAAP operating income turned positive, reflecting expense control. The trajectory shows delivering disciplined expense management consistent with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Return to positive EPS by FY 2027	A primary condition in Silvaco Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.28.	Broken	EPS remains below $0.10 in FY 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue of approximately $18 million in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Silvaco Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$18 million.	Intact	revenue falls below $16 million in 2026-Q2	Revenue: $17.806M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$18 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 202617,806,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1e906ee0-9c53-4615-b077-f5f6a7bb7902. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.28 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.08B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.28	$82,300,830	6 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	$0.28	$82,300,830	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$0.28	$82,300,830	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.28	$82,300,830	6 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	$0.28	$82,300,830	6 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$0.28	$82,300,830	6 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	$0.28	$82,300,830	6 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$0.28	$82,300,830	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$0.29	$81,884,170	5 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	$0.20	$80,647,500	6 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	0	0
2026-06-01	6	0	0
2026-07-01	6	0	0
2026-08-01	6	0	0
2026-09-01	6	0	0
2026-10-01	6	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve gross margin to 88% in Q2 2026Gross margin: 85.15%
Control operating expenses near $15.5 million in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Return to positive EPS by FY 2027Published status: Broken
Achieve revenue of approximately $18 million in Q2 2026Revenue: $17.806M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Silvaco Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a durable compounder, because it remains loss-making despite recent progress toward profitability. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with mixed signals and a medium-confidence evidence base.

What's priced into Silvaco Group, Inc.

SVCO is tagged as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model also shows a sizable peer premium, so the relative valuation evidence is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment is labeled justified with low fragility. This suggests the evidence does not show a clear case of overly fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong revenue growth and a move to positive non-GAAP operating income, supported by higher IP revenue and expense control. Gross margin has improved, though execution on the margin and expense priorities is mixed, and the business remains classified as loss-making overall. Recent performance is below its industry cohort, and a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk.

What Silvaco Group, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on maintaining revenue growth while sustaining high gross margins and controlling expenses. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued execution on AI and FTCO expansion would support the operating progress. Fed rate cuts and strength in sector bellwethers such as SAP, CRM, and NOW are favorable external factors, but their impact is uncertain.