Reading SUNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SUNS free→Reading SUNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SUNS free→NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.54. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.54 SUNS trades at 9× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $8.05 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.28 (-8.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$117.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$269.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,076.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
The valuation changed. It rose to "full" from "fair." Risk remained elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is fragile. Management is stable.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect real estate financing costs. A rate hike could pressure Sunrise Realty's operations.
Confirms:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Disproves:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SUNS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SUNS Sunrise Realty Trust, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | elevated |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to be selective and pursue compelling, risk-adjusted returns in the commercial mortgage REIT landscape.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue increased from $5,223,437 in 2025-Q4 to $7,305,049 in 2026-Q1, indicating growth potential. However, this is a newly stated priority, and its impact on financials is yet to be fully realized.
“we continue to see a clear bifurcation in the commercial mortgage REIT landscape... creating an opportunity set where SUNS can continue to be selective and pursue compelling, risk-adjusted returns.”
Continue to maintain a dividend per share of $0.3.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share remained consistent at $0.3 from 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q1, indicating stability in capital allocation. The company is delivering on its commitment to maintain this dividend level.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Cash from operating activities improved significantly from -$1,536,977 in 2025-Q4 to $1,165,237 in 2026-Q1, indicating a positive trajectory in operational cash flow management.
“Cash from operating activities improved to $1,165,237.”
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may show a good change for Sunrise Realty Trust. This would help the company’s weak quality status.
Confirms:Real estate sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is moving back toward its historical highs above 7%.
Disproves:Revenue growth keeps slowing down. It stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends can impact demand for real estate. Strong retail sales may support Sunrise Realty's performance.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.2% month over month.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 27, 2026, Sunrise Realty Trust, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to that certain Loan and Security Agreement, dated as of November 6, 2024 (the “Agreement”), as amended, by and among the Company and Sunrise Realty Trust Holdings I LLC, as co-borrowers, the lenders party thereto, East West Bank (“EWB”), in its capacity as administrative agent for each member of the lenders party and…
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
“Dividend per share remained at $0.3.”
“Dividend per share was $0.3.”
“Dividend per share was $0.3.”
“Dividend per share was $0.3.”