Reading SRFM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SRFM free→Reading SRFM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SRFM free→NYSEIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, SRFM is below typical. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.08 SRFM trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $2.62 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 59% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.54x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.38 → $-0.17 (+56.3% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $690.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it may benefit Surf Air's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the industrial sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth is still under 5%. This shows the sector is slowing down.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SRFM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 11, 2026, Surf Air Mobility Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, are furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securit…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Passenger Airlines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SRFM Surf Air Mobility Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | — | low |
DAL Delta Air Lines | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
UAL United Airlines Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
RYAAY RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC | — | — | moderate |
LUV Southwest Airlines | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for airline operations to achieve full year profitability in 2025, defined as positive Adjusted EBITDA.
Management targets a revenue increase of 20% to 30% for the full year 2026 compared to 2025.
Management expects an adjusted EBITDA loss in the range of $50 million to $40 million for the full year 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Promissory Note On April 20, 2026, the Company and two of its subsidiaries (such subsidiaries, the "Borrowers") entered into a promissory note with LamVen (the “Note”) in an aggregate principal amount of up to $15 million (the “Maximum Principal Amount”). Lender will advance funds (each, an "Advance") on request of the Company or any of the Borrowers; provided such Advances (i) may not exceed $5 million in each consecutive 90-day period commencing on…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Registered Direct Offering On April 20, 2026, Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with LamVen LLC (“LamVen”), an existing investor, and another institutional investor, relating to the offering and sale in a registered direct offering (the “Offering”) of an aggregate of 13,318,181 shares (the “Investor Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, $0.0001 par value per share (the “C…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information disclosed in
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information disclosed in