Reading DAL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DAL free→Reading DAL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DAL free→NYSEIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, it is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major players in the Industrials sector.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $83.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $84 DAL trades at 14× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $167 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $78–$105. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 50% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.88x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.45 → $1.47 (+1.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 96% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.8% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$175.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$381.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,290.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Guidance on revenue growth shows demand strength and helps assess margin protection efforts.
Confirms:June quarter revenue is expected to grow more than low-teens percentage from last year.
Disproves:June quarter revenue is expected to grow less than low-teens percentage from last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Operational issues could harm customer satisfaction and resilience.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 11, 2026, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (“Delta,” “we,” “us” or “our”) entered into a credit agreement among Delta, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto (the “Credit Facility”). The Credit Facility refinances Delta’s existing credit agreement, dated as of November 6, 2023 (as amended from time to time, the “Existing Credit Facility”), and replaces the Existing Credit Facility in its entirety. The proceeds…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$78.00 – $105.00 (median $88.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Passenger Airlines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DAL Delta Air Lines | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
UAL United Airlines Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
RYAAY RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC | — | — | moderate |
LUV Southwest Airlines | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | elevated |
AAL American Airlines Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | elevated |
24 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 88% of the last 8 guided quarters · 22.3% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Delta aims to maintain an investment-grade balance sheet with adjusted net debt below 2019 levels.
Delta is reducing capacity growth to protect margins amid rising fuel costs.
Delta is focused on improving operational resilience and cost performance.
Why it matters: Controlling non-fuel costs is important to keep margins steady as fuel costs rise.
Confirms:Non-fuel unit costs grow at or below 6% year over year.
Disproves:Non-fuel unit costs grow above 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Cutting capacity growth helps keep profits safe during tough fuel times. It shows Delta is managing well.
Confirms:Capacity growth was flat or lower compared to last year in the June quarter.
Disproves:Capacity growth was higher compared to last year in the June quarter.
Why it matters: Strong demand for corporate travel helps revenue grow. This shows business travel is coming back, which is key for Delta.
Confirms:Corporate travel sales grew by double digits year over year in the June quarter.
Disproves:Corporate travel sales reported with flat or declining growth year over year in June quarter.
Why it matters: This profit would show Delta can manage costs even with rising fuel prices.
Confirms:June quarter pre-tax profit reported at or above $1 billion.
Disproves:June quarter pre-tax profit was below $800 million.
Why it matters: Higher fuel costs may hurt margins. This could affect profits in the June quarter.
Confirms:Fuel costs reported above $4.30 per gallon for the June quarter.
Disproves:Fuel costs remain below $4.30 per gallon for the June quarter.
Emergency landing raises concerns about operational safety.
Operational issues could affect reliability and customer trust.
Enhances customer loyalty and revenue through partnership.
Enhances customer loyalty and revenue through partnership.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Delta Air Lines, Inc. today issued a press release reporting financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Delta Air Lines, Inc. (“Delta”) today announced certain leadership changes, as further detailed in Delta’s News Hub story, a copy of which is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. (b), (c) As part of these leadership changes, Delta announced that John E. Laughter, Delta’s Executive Vice President - Chief of Operations and President - Delta TechO…
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers. (b) Delta Air Lines, Inc. (“Delta”) has announced that William C. Carroll, who has served as Delta’s principal accounting officer, will retire effective March 31, 2026. (c) Julia A. McConnell, age 57, joined Delta in March 2025 and is being designated as Delta’s principal accounting officer effective April 1, 2026. Prior to joining Delta, she served as Senior Vice President and Chief Accoun…