Delta Air Lines (DAL)

NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$75.37-3.47%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Delta Air Lines’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-12.6% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.57 → 7.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted net debt below $13.5 billion	Delta keeps its debt below $13.5 billion to stay strong.	Under Pressure	Adjusted net debt rises above $13.5 billion after 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow between $3 billion and $4 billion	Free cash flow should be $3-4 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $3 billion in 2026	Free cash flow: $300M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3 and <=4 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 9, 2026300,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin between 6% and 8%	A primary condition in Delta Air Lines's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% and <=8%.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 6% next quarter	Operating margin: 7.2% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% and <=8%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 9, 20267.203012 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8cfface3-90f0-45b8-9754-5849ef3a5dd8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 7.5% per year	A supporting condition in Delta Air Lines's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.5% YoY.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 7.5% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.49

$8.83 → $7.49 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$71.37B

$74.30B → $71.37B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.83	$74,301,473,040	7 / 11
2026-07-25	$8.79	$74,347,200,310	8 / 11
2026-07-26	$8.79	$74,347,200,310	8 / 11
2026-07-27	$8.79	$74,412,257,640	8 / 11
2026-07-28	$8.79	$74,412,257,640	8 / 11
2026-07-29	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$8.79	$74,412,257,640	8 / 11
2026-08-04	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-06	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$8.79	$74,412,257,640	8 / 11
2026-08-09	$8.79	$74,412,257,640	8 / 11
2026-08-10	$8.79	$74,412,257,640	8 / 11
2026-08-11	$8.79	$74,412,257,640	8 / 11
2026-08-12	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$8.79	$74,412,257,640	8 / 11
2026-08-14	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$8.85	$69,111,636,118	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$8.80	$69,282,777,449	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$8.80	$69,282,777,449	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$8.80	$69,282,777,449	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$8.80	$69,283,529,572	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$8.80	$69,283,529,572	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$8.74	$69,345,235,454	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$8.74	$69,345,235,454	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$8.74	$69,345,235,454	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$8.74	$69,345,235,454	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$8.70	$69,353,706,043	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$8.66	$69,353,706,043	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$8.61	$69,407,291,405	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$8.57	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$8.57	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$8.57	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$8.57	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$8.57	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$8.57	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$8.51	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$8.50	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$8.50	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$8.50	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$8.50	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$8.50	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$8.50	$69,407,291,405	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$8.47	$69,406,467,197	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$8.37	$69,623,767,197	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$8.37	$69,623,767,197	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$8.37	$69,623,767,197	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$8.27	$69,813,999,744	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$8.27	$69,813,999,744	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$8.27	$69,813,999,744	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$8.21	$69,846,902,808	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$8.14	$70,075,796,867	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$8.14	$70,075,796,867	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$8.14	$70,075,796,867	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$8.11	$70,236,099,916	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$8.04	$70,328,688,151	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$7.79	$70,605,752,724	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$7.66	$70,656,854,199	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$7.62	$71,027,868,199	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$7.62	$71,027,868,199	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$7.64	$71,171,931,923	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$7.63	$71,230,971,798	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$7.52	$71,368,524,740	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$7.49	$71,368,524,740	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Sell*
2026-05-01	25	1
2026-06-01	25	2
2026-07-01	26	2
2026-08-01	24	1
2026-09-01	24	1
2026-10-01	24	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades10 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 12 · prior Sep 24

$105.00 → $102.00-2.9%

SusquehannaOct 12 · prior Oct 7

$100.00 → $95.00-5.0%

Seaport GlobalOct 12

$100.00New observation · no comparable prior

BMO CapitalOct 12 · prior Sep 28

$100.00 → $105.00+5.0%

Argus ResearchOct 12 · prior Jul 14

$105.00 → $95.00-9.5%

Raymond JamesOct 7 · prior Aug 24

$98.00 → $100.00+2.0%

BernsteinOct 7 · prior Jul 13

$106.00 → $100.00-5.7%

Wells FargoOct 6 · prior Jun 30

$105.00 → $100.00-4.8%

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 2 · prior Jul 14

$112.00 → $101.00-9.8%

Redburn PartnersSep 18

$105.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$61.60$123.20

2 raises · 6 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted net debt below $13.5 billionPublished status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow between $3 billion and $4 billionPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating margin between 6% and 8%Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth near 7.5% per yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Delta Air Lines outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving earnings and managing debt. The current thesis state indicates mixed results, with management making progress on some priorities while facing recent challenges.

What's priced into Delta Air Lines

The market appears to price DAL as a cheap option compared to its peers, reflecting a significant expectations gap. However, the valuation is justified given the current fundamentals and the company's recent earnings miss.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its goal of growing earnings per share and managing capacity, which supports revenue improvement. However, the recent earnings miss and a medium confidence level suggest that near-term risks could impact performance.

What Delta Air Lines hinges on

The thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on earnings growth. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like UAL, RYAAY, and LUV will be crucial in shaping investor sentiment and expectations.