Reading ALGT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALGT free→Reading ALGT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALGT free→NASDAQIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, ALGT is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $95.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $95 ALGT trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $227 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 58% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -13.59x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.42 → $-0.36 (+14.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 45% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -34.3% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$279.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$561.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,913.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This offering is important for paying off debt and meeting company needs. Finishing it shows financial strength.
Confirms:The company issues the $650 million in senior secured notes on June 24, 2026.
Disproves:The offering fails to close or is significantly delayed beyond the expected date.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALGT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. Pro Forma Financial Information Attached as Exhibit 99.1 are (i) the unaudited pro forma condensed combined statements of income (loss) (referred to as the “pro forma income statements”) for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and for the year ended December 31, 2025, which combine the historical consolidated statements of income (loss) of Allegiant Travel Company (the “Company”) and Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (“Sun Country”), after giving effect to the a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Passenger Airlines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALGT Allegiant Travel Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
DAL Delta Air Lines | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
UAL United Airlines Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
RYAAY RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC | — | — | moderate |
LUV Southwest Airlines | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of Sun Country Airlines to enhance Allegiant's market position.
Continue integrating Boeing 737 MAX aircraft to enhance operational efficiency.
Focus on improving customer service and expanding loyalty programs to boost customer satisfaction.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Ensure effective capital allocation to support strategic initiatives and financial stability.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing after the acquisition.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows strong growth in operating income compared to last year.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows lower operating income. It may also show big operational problems.
Why it matters: Successful integration can help reach more customers and run better. This can lead to growth.
Confirms:Management says they reached their goal of $140 million in annual savings. This is from the Sun Country merger in the first year.
Disproves:Integration problems can slow down savings. They can also disrupt how the company runs.
Why it matters: Integrating the MAX can save fuel and improve reliability. This affects overall costs.
Confirms:Management says the MAX will make up over 50% of available seat miles by 2028.
Disproves:Delays with the MAX or operational problems can lead to lower use than expected.
below. Such information shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Aircraft Financing Transactions Since March 31, 2026,…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On the Closing Date, effective as of the effective time of the Second Merger, as approved by resolutions of Allegiant’s board of directors (the “ Allegiant Board ”) and pursuant to the terms of the Merger Agreement, the Allegiant Board approved and adopted an amendment to Allegiant’s bylaws (the “ Bylaws Amendment ”) to change the number of directo…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. Merger Agreement Closing On May 13, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), Allegiant Travel Company, a Nevada corporation (“ Allegiant ”), completed the previously announced acquisition of Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Sun Country ”), pursuant to the Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”), dated January 11, 2026, by and among Allegiant, Sun Country, Mirage Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Allegiant Travel Company (the “Company”) issued the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K concerning our results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The information in Section 2 of this Current Report on Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 is deemed to be furnished and is not to be considered to be “filed” with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As such, this information shall not be incorporated…