Reading SKYW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SKYW free→Reading SKYW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SKYW free→NASDAQIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The stock's outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how major players like DAL and UAL perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $92.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $92 SKYW trades at 9× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $199 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.80 → $2.74 (-2.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$145.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$356.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,663.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into revenue growth and operational efficiency. It is a key event for investors.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth over 10%. It also shows better operational metrics.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue growth under 5%. It also shows worse operational metrics.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SKYW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, SkyWest, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the Company’s press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) is furnished pursuant to General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Passenger Airlines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SKYW SkyWest, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
DAL Delta Air Lines | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
UAL United Airlines Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
RYAAY RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC | — | — | moderate |
LUV Southwest Airlines | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -21.3% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strategies to drive revenue growth across the business.
Implement measures to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs.
Prioritize strategies to enhance cash flow generation.
Why it matters: Cash flow generation is a focus area. Strong cash flow supports growth plans.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations exceeds $50 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations falls below $30 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Better efficiency helps manage costs. It affects cash flow and profits.
Confirms:Efficiency metrics show better results from Q1.
Disproves:Efficiency metrics are worse compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Exceeding 7% growth would show that SkyWest is improving its revenue growth strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 7% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is 7% or lower compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Lowering costs will make operations more efficient. This will help cash flow.
Confirms:Pilot training costs decrease or stabilize compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Pilot training costs continue to rise compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing the conversion on time will improve service quality. It will also help operations.
Confirms:The first CRJ450 aircraft enters service as planned in Fall 2026.
Disproves:The conversion is delayed beyond Fall 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows smarter use of money. It also shows good financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow generation is better than in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow generation is worse than in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is crucial for funding operations and growth. It indicates financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities is up from the last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities is down from the last quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026, SkyWest, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the Company’s press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) is furnished pursuant to General Instruction B.2 to Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18…