Alaska Air Group (ALK)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-14
$39.91-1.97%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put ALK beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS improves toward positive by end of 2026: Q2 EPS -0.92 vs target 3.5; Q3 guide 0.0-1.0.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 10% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 41%, softest on free-cash-flow yield.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 46% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAlaska Air Group's international expansion strategy must continue to drive growth to justify its price. Revenue grew 10% year over year, and the latest quarter beat expectations. It trades at 0.3× price-to-sales versus a peer median of 1.6×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than anticipated. The primary risk is if Alaska Air cuts guidance on the next call, which could lead to a significant decline. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades. Our read remains provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. ALK is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 16 analysts currently covering ALK (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ALK in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Passenger Airlines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ALK next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes and global network
New routes support international expansion objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $39.91
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $39.91.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes and global network
New Europe flights support international expansion objective.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes and global network
New routes align with international expansion goals.
Advances: Execute Alaska Accelerate plan for profitable growth
Expanding cargo operations supports profitable growth strategy.
Threatens: Manage cost pressures amid fuel price volatility
War impacts fuel prices and operational costs significantly.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes
SAF project supports international growth objectives.
Former T-Mobile CEO brings valuable experience to the board.
Appointment reported by credible outlet enhances strategic direction.