Reading ALK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALK free→Reading ALK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALK free→NYSEIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and risk is high, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Earnings quality is robust, and management's recent track record has been neutral, while the company is capital-friendly. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. If ALK cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $49.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $49 the market pays 40× p/e — above the 23× p/e peer median but in line with its own 35× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $49 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $54–$60. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 16.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.00 → $-0.90 (+10.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 94% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 4.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$234.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$484.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,646.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how much revenue is growing and how well the company is doing.
Confirms one read:Earnings reports show a big rise in revenue compared to Q1 results.
Confirms the other:Earnings results show a drop in revenue or worse operating income.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Election of Directors On June 1, 2026, the Board of Directors of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed G. Michael Sievert to the Company’s board of directors, effective immediately. Mr. Sievert will serve on the board’s Safety and Innovation Committees and on the boards of the Company’s airline subsidiaries, Alaska Airlines, Inc. and Horizon Air Industries, Inc. Mr. Sievert will participate in the compensation arrangements currently applicable to non-employee directors. Under the t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$54.00 – $60.00 (median $56.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Passenger Airlines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALK Alaska Air Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | fair | high |
DAL Delta Air Lines | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
UAL United Airlines Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
RYAAY RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC | — | — | moderate |
LUV Southwest Airlines | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding international long-haul routes, including new services to Europe.
Continue to enhance capital allocation by issuing debt to support strategic initiatives.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Aim to grow revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: This offering will change Alaska Air's funding and support its growth plans.
Confirms:The successful closing of the $500 million senior notes offering on or around May 12, 2026.
Disproves:The offering fails to close or is significantly delayed beyond the expected date.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost control and more revenue. This helps profits.
Confirms:Q2 operating income is less negative than -$279 million.
Disproves:Q2 operating income is worse than -$279 million.
Why it matters: This debt issuance is meant to enhance financial flexibility. Its effectiveness will be key for future growth.
Confirms one read:Management says they have more money to use after taking on debt.
Confirms the other:Management says taking on debt did not change their money options much.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth means higher demand and better performance for Alaska Air.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 26.3% year over year.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement Indenture Governing Senior Notes On May 12, 2026, Alaska Airlines, Inc. (“ Alaska ”) issued and sold $500 million aggregate principal amount of 6.500% senior notes due 2031 (the “ Notes ”) pursuant to an Indenture dated as of May 12, 2026, by and between Alaska and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (the “ Base Indenture ”), as supplemented by the First Supplemental Indenture dated as of May 12, 2026 by and among Alaska, Alaska Air Group,…
Signatures Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized. ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. Registrant Date: May 12, 2026 /s/ KYLE B. LEVINE Kyle B. Levine Executive Vice President Corporate and Public Affairs, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary
Other Events Senior Notes Offering On May 7, 2026, Alaska Air Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the pricing of the previously announced private offering (the “ Offering ”) of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 6.5% senior notes due 2031 (the “ Notes ”) by Alaska Airlines, Inc. (“ Alaska ”). The Notes will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by the Company. The Company also announced that AS Mileage Plan IP Ltd. (“ Loyalty I…
Other Events Senior Notes Offering On May 6, 2026, Alaska Air Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the launch of a private offering (the “ Offering ”) of $500 million aggregate principal amount of senior notes due 2031 (the “ Notes ”) by Alaska Airlines, Inc. (“ Alaska ”). The Notes will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by the Company. Alaska intends to use the net proceeds received from the Offering, after deducting fees and expen…