Alaska Air Group (ALK)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
$35.71-1.22%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put ALK beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS improves toward positive by end of 2026: Diluted EPS: $-1.32 per share.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 10% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 42%, softest on free-cash-flow yield.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 44% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAlaska Air’s long-haul routes and premium travel growth anchor the case. Revenue growth accelerated from 5% to 14%, though earnings remain pressured. Q3 2026 earnings beat consensus, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.36. ALK trades at 0.3× sales versus 1.5× for peers. The price reflects less growth than our forecast. Fuel costs drove a Q2 operating loss, and fourth-quarter EPS guidance missed consensus. Our model puts next-quarter miss risk near 30%. The primary EPS pillar remains under pressure, with diluted EPS at $-1.32. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. ALK is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 16 analysts currently covering ALK (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ALK in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Passenger Airlines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ALK next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Q4 EPS outlook materially misses consensus, signaling near-term earnings pressure.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $35.71
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $35.71.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Threatens: Manage cost pressures amid fuel price volatility
Quarterly loss tied to fuel costs pressures earnings and tests cost management amid fuel volatility.
Threatens: Manage cost pressures amid fuel price volatility
Fuel cost volatility poses significant risk to profitability.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes and global network
CEO's focus aligns with expanding international routes.
Expansion of revenue-sharing supports growth objectives.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes and global network
Expansion of revenue-sharing supports international growth objectives.
Investments in premium business align with growth objectives.
Advances: Expand international long-haul routes and global network
Supports expansion of international long-haul routes.