American Airlines Group (AAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
$12.78+1.59%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put AAL beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 12% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 42%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 37% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAAL’s claim rests on growing airline revenue and stronger loyalty monetization, despite weak profitability and sector pressure. Revenue growth accelerated from 10.8% to 19.3%; third-quarter earnings were inline at a loss. AAL trades at 0.1× sales versus the 1.5× peer median; expectations look modest versus our view. Fuel-cost pressure and an unprofitable year threaten the case; our model puts the next-quarter miss near 34%. Recent financial performance fell into the bottom half of its industry, breaking a key thesis pillar. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades; the thesis has broken. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. AAL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 27 analysts currently covering AAL (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for AAL in the last 4 months.
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Compare AAL with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Passenger Airlines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put AAL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Sharp fuel inflation and higher fares amid weaker load factors threaten costs and demand.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $12.78
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $12.78.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Threatens: Maintain efficiency and improve cost performance
Forecast 2026 loss as fuel costs outpace fares pressures cost performance and profitability.
Threatens: Drive free cash flow generation above $2 billion in 2026
Higher fuel costs pushing outlook toward a full-year loss threaten 2026 free-cash-flow generation.
Threatens: Maintain efficiency and improve cost performance
Deeper loss forecast and 67% fuel-cost increase materially worsen near-term cost outlook.
Threatens: Maintain efficiency and improve cost performance
Soaring fuel costs weigh on profit and challenge cost-performance objectives.
Threatens: Drive free cash flow generation above $2 billion in 2026
The earnings-focused fuel-cost test flags a meaningful risk to cash-flow delivery.
Advances: Elevate the customer experience and operational reliability
New, more spacious short-haul seats are a concrete customer-experience improvement.
Threatens: Drive free cash flow generation above $2 billion in 2026
Q3 guidance analysis highlights fuel-cost exposure to cash generation.
