Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
$6.45-0.46%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put ULCC beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Reduce pre-delivery deposit balance by $170M to $210M in 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 24% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 52% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskFrontier’s thesis rests on revenue growth continuing as it pursues 2026 EPS guidance, despite unsteady management and weak performance. Revenue grew 53% year over year in Q3 2026, and non-GAAP EPS beat consensus. ULCC trades at 0.3× sales versus a 1.5× peer median; expectations look modest versus our view. Fuel-cost pressure threatens 2026 EPS guidance, and our model puts next-quarter miss probability near 24%. The deposit-balance pillar comparison needs review, so the pressure is unverified. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. ULCC is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering ULCC (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare ULCC with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULCC Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Passenger Airlines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ULCC next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Achieve EPS guidance of $(0.40) to $0.50 for 2026
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Q4 RASM growth outlook supports earnings, though higher fuel costs temper the benefit.
Threatens: Achieve EPS guidance of $(0.40) to $0.50 for 2026
Fuel-cost surge and widening loss pressure the 2026 EPS target despite fare increases.
Advances: Achieve EPS guidance of $(0.40) to $0.50 for 2026
Surprise profit and improved loss outlook support earnings recovery, though the headline gives no 2026 guidance update.
Advances: Achieve EPS guidance of $(0.40) to $0.50 for 2026
Earnings and revenue beat estimates, supporting progress toward 2026 EPS guidance.
Franke's support for premium seating signals a meaningful potential product and revenue shift.
CEO's pursuit of Spirit's displaced market could provide meaningful growth opportunity.
Exiting market undermines growth and revenue potential.
Exiting market undermines growth and fleet expansion objectives.
