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JetBlue (JBLU)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$5.36+6.99%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, JBLU trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. The analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Airlines
- Market cap
- $1.86B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2002-02-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$47.64consensus
Range $47.64 – $47.64
vs price: -89% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $5.36 JBLU trades at 0× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $46 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $3.50–$8.00. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.2x
peer 1.9x · own history 0.2x
Premium
0.1x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-88%
our forecast 0%
Our fair value
$46.01
range $46.01 – $46.01
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 88% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
1st pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.12x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +7.9% / 30d, n=16for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.79 → $-0.73 (+7.9% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 6% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -27.6% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$315.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$598.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,762.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 fuel recapture below 30%
Why it matters: Fuel costs are a major concern. Lower recapture signals ongoing challenges in cost management.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Fuel recapture in Q2 falls below 30%.
Disproves:Fuel recapture in Q2 meets or exceeds 40%.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-151d agoYahoo! FinanceStock Market Today, June 15: JetBlue Airways Rises After Raising Second-Quarter Unit-Revenue Outlook
Advances: Increase revenue
Raising revenue outlook supports growth objectives.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like DAL, UAL, and RYAAY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting JBLU and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If JBLU reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-06-01), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like DAL, UAL, and RYAAY start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping JBLU and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits JBLU and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If JBLU misses again next quarter like this past one (a solid miss of -19% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0116d agoItem 7.01
is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) or the Exchange Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Forward Looking Information This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.