JetBlue (JBLU)

NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.63-0.75%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge JetBlue’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.7B
EPS	—	-0.723
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	10.47B
EPS	—	-2.76
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	11.35B
EPS	—	-1.13

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage capital expenditures near $800 million in 2026	A supporting condition in JetBlue's published investment case. The stated target is <= $800 million CAPEX in 2026.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $800 million significantly in 2026	Capital expenditures: $234M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <= $800 million CAPEX in 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 28, 2026234,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves from -$224 million loss	The company aims to improve operating income from a loss of $224 million in Q1 2026.	Improving	Operating income remains below -$200 million over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $-141M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves toward break-even or better in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026-141,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 92cee5a3-18e9-4e98-ab26-08f9a81f489c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of 7-11% in 2026	A primary condition in JetBlue's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth in 2026-Q2.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in 2026-Q2	Revenue growth: 14.47% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth in 2026-Q2. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Jul 28, 202614.473684 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 92cee5a3-18e9-4e98-ab26-08f9a81f489c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.13

$-0.50 → $-1.13 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.35B

$10.94B → $11.35B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.50	$10,936,103,572	9 / 11
2026-07-25	$-0.50	$10,936,103,572	9 / 11
2026-07-26	$-0.53	$10,951,453,310	16 / 13
2026-07-27	$-0.53	$10,951,453,310	16 / 13
2026-07-28	$-0.50	$10,936,103,572	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$-0.53	$10,964,307,160	16 / 13
2026-07-30	$-0.53	$10,964,307,160	16 / 13
2026-07-31	$-0.41	$11,093,968,890	16 / 14
2026-08-01	$-0.47	$11,078,700,737	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$-0.40	$11,103,944,300	16 / 15
2026-08-03	$-0.40	$11,103,944,300	16 / 15
2026-08-04	$-0.40	$11,103,944,300	16 / 15
2026-08-05	$-0.40	$11,103,944,300	16 / 15
2026-08-06	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-07	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-08	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-09	$-0.40	$11,103,944,300	16 / 15
2026-08-10	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-12	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-13	$-0.41	$11,120,622,110	16 / 15
2026-08-14	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-15	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-16	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-17	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-18	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$-0.46	$11,103,927,404	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$-0.45	$11,151,872,048	9 / 12
2026-08-21	$-0.45	$11,151,872,048	9 / 12
2026-08-22	$-0.45	$11,151,872,048	9 / 12
2026-08-23	$-0.45	$11,151,872,048	9 / 12
2026-08-24	$-0.45	$11,151,872,048	9 / 12
2026-08-25	$-0.51	$11,162,992,048	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$-0.51	$11,162,992,048	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$-0.51	$11,162,992,048	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$-0.51	$11,162,992,048	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$-0.51	$11,162,992,048	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$-0.51	$11,162,992,048	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$-0.51	$11,162,992,048	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$-0.51	$11,162,992,048	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$-0.51	$11,162,992,048	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$-0.51	$11,162,992,048	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$-0.53	$11,164,785,381	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$-0.53	$11,164,785,381	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$-0.53	$11,164,785,381	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$-0.53	$11,164,785,381	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$-0.53	$11,164,785,381	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$-0.53	$11,164,785,381	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$-0.55	$11,173,185,381	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$-0.57	$11,199,658,175	9 / 11
2026-09-12	$-0.69	$11,222,328,160	9 / 12
2026-09-13	$-0.69	$11,222,328,160	9 / 12
2026-09-14	$-0.69	$11,222,328,160	9 / 12
2026-09-15	$-0.69	$11,222,328,160	9 / 12
2026-09-16	$-0.69	$11,222,328,160	9 / 12
2026-09-17	$-0.70	$11,222,328,160	9 / 12
2026-09-18	$-0.70	$11,222,328,160	9 / 12
2026-09-19	$-0.70	$11,222,328,160	9 / 12
2026-09-20	$-0.70	$11,222,328,160	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$-0.70	$11,222,328,160	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$-0.70	$11,222,328,160	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$-0.70	$11,222,528,160	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$-0.70	$11,222,528,160	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$-0.73	$11,208,770,912	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$-0.73	$11,208,770,912	10 / 12
2026-09-27	$-0.73	$11,208,770,912	10 / 12
2026-09-28	$-0.81	$11,218,588,039	10 / 12
2026-09-29	$-0.81	$11,239,268,039	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$-0.81	$11,239,268,039	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$-0.81	$11,239,268,039	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$-0.81	$11,239,268,039	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$-0.90	$11,243,113,639	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$-0.90	$11,243,113,639	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$-0.90	$11,243,113,639	10 / 10
2026-10-06	$-0.92	$11,278,132,668	10 / 10
2026-10-07	$-0.92	$11,278,132,668	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$-1.08	$11,318,853,606	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$-1.12	$11,326,687,627	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$-1.12	$11,326,687,627	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$-1.12	$11,326,687,627	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$-1.12	$11,326,687,627	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$-1.12	$11,326,687,627	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$-1.12	$11,326,687,627	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$-1.12	$11,326,687,627	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$-1.12	$11,326,687,627	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$-1.12	$11,326,687,627	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$-1.13	$11,326,702,360	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$-1.13	$11,326,702,360	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$-1.13	$11,326,702,360	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$-1.13	$11,345,300,089	10 / 10
2026-10-22	$-1.13	$11,345,300,089	10 / 10
2026-10-23	$-1.13	$11,345,300,089	10 / 10
2026-10-24	$-1.13	$11,345,300,089	10 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	11	5
2026-06-01	1	11	5
2026-07-01	1	11	6
2026-08-01	1	10	7
2026-09-01	0	10	7
2026-10-01	0	12	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 7 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 19 · prior Jun 23

$4.50 → $3.50-22.2%

BMO CapitalSep 28 · prior Jul 29

$6.75 → $5.25-22.2%

$0$3.71$7.43

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage capital expenditures near $800 million in 2026Capital expenditures: $234M
Operating income improves from -$224 million lossOperating income: $-141M

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-59.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

JetBlue outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk airline recovery and transformation story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management priorities show progress, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into JetBlue

JBLU screens cheap versus peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and indicates a negative expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually concentrated expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, financial performance may remain uneven: the company has missed in recent quarters, and the risk label recently rose to high. JetForward has generated cumulative incremental EBIT and revenue growth accelerated in the second quarter, while cost control is mixed; management expects second-half margin improvement.

What JetBlue hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on JetForward continuing toward its annual incremental EBIT goal and on cost improvements translating into stronger margins. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; earnings and guidance from DAL, UAL, and RYAAY could also signal whether the sector backdrop is improving or weakening.