Alaska Air Group (ALK)

NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$34.40-2.77%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alaska Air Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-39.2% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.32 → 3.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.11B
EPS	—	-2.034
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	3.77B
EPS	—	-2.6
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	15.79B
EPS	—	-4.535
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	17.34B
EPS	—	3.236

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain strong liquidity and disciplined capital use	Management maintains strong liquidity with $421 million operating cash flow and $203 million in share buybacks.	Intact	Operating cash flow falls below $400 million or debt-to-capitalization rises above 65%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied earnings quarters. At 2026-Q3, available liquidity was $3.3 billion and operating cash flow for the first nine months was $755 million; management had earlier described financing to bolster liquidity and a plan to use excess liquidity to pay down debt. Liquidity remains substantial, but this quarter’s disclosure does not quantify debt reduction against that stated plan, so follow-through is not yet demonstrated here. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain >90% cabin retrofits and load factor near 80%	Operational reliability is high with over 90% cabin retrofits and an 80.2% load factor.	Intact	Cabin retrofits fall below 85% or load factor falls below 75%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied earnings quarters. Management reported first-half industry-leading on-time performance and completion of the major passenger-system integration milestone; average FTEs were 32,171 in 2026-Q3 versus 32,590 in 2025-Q3. Integration is a completed operational milestone, while reliability follow-through has limited comparable quarterly data in this bundle. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS improves toward positive by end of 2026	A primary condition in Alaska Air Group's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= 3.5 USD per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below -1.0 USD per share for 2026-Q2 or fails to reach positive by FY26	Diluted EPS: $-0.68 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= 3.5 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 4, 2026-0.68 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2b0e087a-d605-45ce-8712-7578aa0b0090. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 8% premium revenue and 3.5% unit revenue	Alaska Air is growing revenue with premium revenue up 8% and unit revenue up 3.5%.	Under Pressure	premium revenue growth or unit revenue growth falls below 3.5% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied earnings quarters. Management announced further routes and international network expansion; 2026-Q3 RASM increased 11.7% year-over-year, while consolidated operating income was $82 million compared with $148 million in 2025-Q3. Route launches and unit-revenue growth indicate delivery on network expansion, but quarter operating income declined. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.24

$6.57 → $3.24 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$17.34B

$16.77B → $17.34B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.57	$16,770,204,740	16 / 12
2026-07-25	$6.26	$16,813,681,040	16 / 13
2026-07-26	$6.26	$16,813,681,040	16 / 13
2026-07-27	$6.24	$16,858,821,402	8 / 10
2026-07-28	$6.06	$16,836,882,940	16 / 13
2026-07-29	$5.99	$16,856,190,640	16 / 13
2026-07-30	$5.99	$16,856,190,640	16 / 13
2026-07-31	$5.99	$16,856,190,640	16 / 13
2026-08-01	$5.99	$16,856,190,640	16 / 13
2026-08-02	$5.99	$16,856,190,640	16 / 13
2026-08-03	$5.99	$16,856,190,640	16 / 13
2026-08-04	$5.99	$16,856,190,640	16 / 13
2026-08-05	$5.99	$16,856,190,640	16 / 13
2026-08-06	$5.99	$16,856,190,640	16 / 13
2026-08-07	$5.99	$16,870,746,127	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$5.99	$16,856,752,069	16 / 13
2026-08-09	$5.99	$16,856,752,069	16 / 13
2026-08-10	$5.99	$16,856,752,069	16 / 13
2026-08-11	$5.99	$16,856,752,069	16 / 13
2026-08-12	$5.94	$16,880,943,420	16 / 13
2026-08-13	$5.94	$16,880,943,420	16 / 13
2026-08-14	$5.99	$16,870,746,127	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$5.99	$16,870,746,127	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$5.99	$16,870,746,127	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$5.99	$16,870,746,127	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$5.99	$16,870,746,127	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$5.99	$16,870,746,127	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$5.87	$16,921,919,199	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$5.87	$16,921,919,199	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$5.87	$16,921,919,199	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$5.87	$16,921,919,199	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$5.87	$16,921,919,199	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$5.62	$16,948,792,135	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$5.62	$16,948,792,135	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$5.62	$16,948,792,135	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$5.62	$16,948,792,135	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$5.62	$16,948,792,135	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$5.62	$16,948,792,135	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$5.62	$16,948,792,135	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$5.62	$16,948,792,135	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$5.38	$16,974,256,420	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$5.27	$16,987,056,420	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$5.27	$16,987,056,420	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$5.27	$16,987,056,420	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$5.27	$16,987,056,420	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$5.27	$16,987,056,420	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$5.27	$16,987,056,420	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$5.27	$16,987,056,420	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$5.27	$16,987,056,420	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$5.21	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$4.93	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$4.93	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$4.93	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$4.93	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$4.93	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$4.93	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$4.93	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$4.93	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$4.65	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$4.65	$17,010,046,207	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$5.31	$17,011,224,779	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$5.32	$17,006,000,145	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$5.32	$17,006,000,145	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$5.53	$17,006,000,145	8 / 11
2026-09-26	$5.53	$17,002,714,430	8 / 11
2026-09-27	$5.53	$17,002,714,430	8 / 11
2026-09-28	$5.53	$17,002,714,430	8 / 11
2026-09-29	$5.43	$17,071,024,572	8 / 11
2026-09-30	$5.43	$17,071,024,572	8 / 11
2026-10-01	$5.43	$17,071,057,288	8 / 11
2026-10-02	$5.43	$17,071,057,288	8 / 11
2026-10-03	$4.89	$17,114,860,791	8 / 11
2026-10-04	$4.89	$17,114,860,144	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$4.89	$17,114,860,144	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$4.63	$17,134,507,217	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$4.63	$17,134,507,217	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$5.03	$17,178,538,337	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$4.44	$17,190,862,991	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$4.44	$17,190,862,991	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$4.44	$17,190,862,991	7 / 10
2026-10-12	$4.44	$17,190,862,991	7 / 10
2026-10-13	$4.44	$17,190,862,991	7 / 10
2026-10-14	$4.44	$17,190,862,991	7 / 10
2026-10-15	$4.44	$17,190,862,991	7 / 10
2026-10-16	$4.44	$17,196,386,911	7 / 10
2026-10-17	$4.44	$17,196,386,911	7 / 10
2026-10-18	$4.44	$17,196,386,911	7 / 10
2026-10-19	$4.44	$17,196,386,911	7 / 10
2026-10-20	$4.44	$17,196,386,911	7 / 10
2026-10-21	$4.44	$17,199,386,911	7 / 10
2026-10-22	$3.24	$17,328,971,096	7 / 10
2026-10-23	$3.24	$17,345,884,684	6 / 10
2026-10-24	$3.24	$17,343,025,705	6 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	1
2026-06-01	15	1
2026-07-01	15	1
2026-08-01	15	1
2026-09-01	15	1
2026-10-01	15	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 22 · prior Jul 2

$69.00 → $52.00-24.6%

BMO CapitalOct 22 · prior Sep 28

$50.00 → $42.00-16.0%

UBSOct 16 · prior Sep 10

$52.00 → $51.00-1.9%

SusquehannaOct 7

$50.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$37.95$75.90

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain strong liquidity and disciplined capital useDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain >90% cabin retrofits and load factor near 80%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
EPS improves toward positive by end of 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth of at least 8% premium revenue and 3.5% unit revenuePublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alaska Air Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical airline business with a growth and diversification effort, rather than a steady compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: premium and international revenue are growing, but earnings quality and recent performance remain weak.

What's priced into Alaska Air Group

The valuation evidence points to ALK being cheap versus peers, while the model has low confidence and indicates a negative expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the latest quarter showed operating revenue up 14% year over year and premium revenue up about 25%, but operating income fell to $82 million from $148 million a year earlier. Management is delivering on route expansion and revenue diversification; operational reliability progress is mixed, and the next guidance update is a key risk despite recent earnings beats.

What Alaska Air Group hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether revenue growth and network expansion translate into stronger operating income. Guidance cuts would add a negative signal, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as DAL, UAL, and RYAAY could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.